- Bitcoin’s price follows M2 growth with a 12-week delay and now moves as M2 hits above $112 trillion.
- Current volatility is near historic lows and may trigger a breakout as liquidity builds in the market.
- Forecasts show BTC may hit $150K in Q3 then reach $250K in Q4 if conditions remain the same.
Bitcoin may be on the verge of a major move as volatility declines sharply and global M2 supply trends signal upward momentum. A chart shared on July 6, 2025, by analyst Michaël van de Poppe shows Bitcoin (BTC) closely following a 12-week lagged correlation with global M2, now hitting record levels. With liquidity rising, the forecast suggests Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in Q3 and $250,000 in Q4.
M2 money supply—a key metric representing global liquid assets—has increased rapidly since early 2024, topping $112 trillion in mid-2025. As global liquidity expands, the relationship between M2 and Bitcoin prices remains strong, particularly with leading indicators aligning. The chart shows a tight tracking pattern between Bitcoin and M2, reinforcing the liquidity-driven market thesis.
Van de Poppe stated the rising M2 level increases the probability of rate cuts and macro shifts, which could drive capital back into crypto assets.
Global Liquidity Conditions Signal Bullish Tailwind for Bitcoin
The black line in the chart tracks global M2 money supply with a 12-week lead, while Bitcoin’s price is shown in pink. The synchronized pattern began forming in early 2023 and has continued through 2025, showing Bitcoin trailing M2 trends consistently.
According to LSEG Datastream and Global Macro Investor, M2 has jumped from $100 trillion in early 2023 to over $112 trillion by mid-2025. This steady climb reflects increasing monetary expansion across major economies, coinciding with efforts to stimulate growth amid geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.
Historically, rising M2 levels have correlated with asset price increases, particularly in risk-on markets like cryptocurrency. Analysts often view liquidity growth as a direct fuel source for speculative assets, especially when paired with rate cut expectations. This context places Bitcoin in a favorable setup for a multi-month advance.
Volatility Collapse and Forecasted Targets Raise Market Expectations
Van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin volatility is dropping to its lowest point in months, often a precursor to large price shifts. As consolidation narrows, he predicted $150,000 as a realistic Q3 target, followed by a $250,000 level in Q4, assuming current conditions persist.
Market observers often interpret low volatility as a “calm before the storm” scenario, where momentum builds ahead of large directional moves. The sharp rise in M2 paired with volatility suppression suggests that market energy is accumulating.
This combination of technical quiet and macro liquidity expansion presents a unique setup. Traders are increasingly positioning for a breakout aligned with M2 projections. Additionally, capital flow may pivot back toward high-beta crypto sectors, including altcoins, which Van de Poppe expects to “outperform massively.”
Will Bitcoin Hit $250,000 As Global Liquidity Drives Asset Repricing?
With M2 liquidity levels rising and volatility collapsing, a major repricing phase could be underway across crypto and financial markets. The question remains: will Bitcoin break $250,000 as forecasted, or will macro risks stall the rally?
Van de Poppe’s projections assume monetary policy easing will accelerate and that M2 momentum will continue. If these elements align, the technical and macro charts both point to a highly bullish environment for Bitcoin through late 2025.
