Fed Mouthpiece: Today’s CPI Report Will Not Alter the Fed’s Policy Trajectory

According to a report by Jinse Finance, Nick Timiraos, known as the “Fed whisperer,” recently wrote: “June’s inflation data may prompt Federal Reserve officials to remain cautious. Policymakers who previously predicted that tariffs would trigger more significant price pressures later this year may find little reason to change their view after seeing the June data—especially if retailers delay price adjustments as much as possible. The June figures will only make the upcoming July and August data even more important. Similarly, those policymakers who believe tariffs will not cause notable inflation (because companies lack the pricing power to sustain rising inflation) also have little reason to change their stance after Tuesday’s report.” In recent weeks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the threshold for a rate cut may be slightly lower than it was in the spring. This shift reflects an assessment that inflation risks may take longer to materialize and thus have a relatively weaker impact. If the Fed maintains the expectation that “inflation acceleration will not be too severe,” then, based on factors such as a weakening labor market or improving inflation data, Powell could open the door to a rate cut as early as September.