Key Notes
- Bitcoin options traders are targeting a move to $126K by late August, as per the current call spread.
- QCP Capital highlights improving factors such as broader stablecoin adoption, clearer regulation, and growing institutional interest as catalysts for the overall crypto market rally.
- Following weaker US jobs data and downward revisions for previous months, the CME FedWatch tool now shows over an 80% chance of a rate cut in September.
Over the past week, Bitcoin BTC $114 818 24h volatility: 1.0% Market cap: $2.29 T Vol. 24h: $28.27 B price has been seeing some volatility, taking a dip at $112K levels to fill the CME gap levels, and bouncing back, eyeing a breakout past $115,000 as of press time. Crypto market liquidations have soared to more than $1 billion last Friday amid this volatility.
Currently, BTC is facing strong rejection at $115,000 with options traders eyeing a strong breakout ahead. Analysts at QCP Capital continue to maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Bitcoin Options Traders Eye $126,000 In July
Analysts at QCP Capital noted that July’s monthly close for Bitcoin marked a record high. They view this current pullback as a potential correction rather than a sign of market capitulation. Historically, similar flushes have preceded renewed accumulation phases, especially when excessive leverage is cleared, they noted.
QCP analysts also highlight improving structural and macro conditions. These include wider stablecoin adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks, and increased institutional interest in tokenization.
In the options market, sentiment remains opportunistic with notable demand for BTC 29 August 2025 call options at $118K/$124K/$126K. This highlights the expectations of a potential rebound to new Bitcoin all-time highs.
While front-end put skew remains elevated, QCP noted it hasn’t reached panic levels and could normalize if BTC recaptures the $115K mark.
QCP added that the upcoming ETF flow data would be a key signal. A return to positive inflows along with compressed volatility, could validate a near-term “buy-the-dip” thesis.
Crypto Market Selloff and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
Last week’s crypto market sell-off led to a broader risk-off sentiment in the traditional markets. This happened on a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and renewed tariff tensions.
However, with the revised U.S. jobs data cutting 250,000 jobs from the May and June figures, labor market conditions appear weaker than expected. The lower-than-anticipated employment data in July further supports this outlook.
As per the CME FedWatch tool , the expectations of a Fed rate cut during the September FOMC meeting have shot to over 80%, up from 39% in the previous week.
This means that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is more likely to pivot to quantitative easing (QE) measures, offering markets the much-needed liquidity boost.
Veteran investor Robert Kiyosaki stated that if Bitcoin falls further from here, he would double down his bets. Any further drop could be a good chance for investors to buy at a discount.
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