Dogecoin at Risk of 15% Drop as Key Cohorts Exit

Dogecoin price has corrected by 2% over the last 24 hours, wiping out its weekly gains and pushing the 7-day performance into negative territory. A few on-chain indicators suggest that Dogecoin’s downside may not be over.

Specifically, a breakdown of two key cohorts and supply profit data points to a potential bearish continuation. If a key support cracks, Doge could drop lower, possibly causing a 15% decline from current levels.

Two Important Cohorts Are Pulling Out

The HODL Waves metric shows that two key Dogecoin holding groups are now reducing their positions. These cohorts are:

• 6-month to 12-month holders, whose share dropped from 15.46% to 14.705% in the past two weeks
• 1-month to 3-month holders, who saw a sharper decline from 8.0% to just 4.614%

This suggests that both medium- and long-term believers are selling, not just short-term traders. These cohorts often signal sentiment shifts in the broader holder base. When both reduce exposure at the same time, it usually means there’s reduced confidence in near-term price recovery.

This is particularly concerning because this shift happened during a dip, not after a rally. That means these holders aren’t taking profit; they’re exiting with losses or minimal returns, which could signal deeper downside fears.

HODL Waves show the distribution of coins by age, helping identify how long different holder groups have held onto their tokens before moving them.

Supply in Profit Still High, And That’s a Problem

Right now, 76.95% of Dogecoin’s circulating supply is still in profit. Historically, any time this number crosses above 73%, price corrections have followed.

The last time it was at this same level, which was July 30, Dogecoin was trading around $0.22. Prices dropped from there to $0.19 shortly after.

Back then, the percentage of supply in profit dropped to 61.79%, and only after that reset did the Dogecoin price begin to climb again. Right now, we’re at the same 76% range, and the risk is that the same setup could repeat itself again: supply in profit needs to drop before buyers return. Until then, every uptick faces heavy sell pressure.

This also ties back to the HODL Waves. When profit supply is high and mid- to long-term holders start reducing their positions, it usually reflects a fear of losing gains or front-running a deeper fall.

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Dogecoin Price Chart and A Key Metric Confirm Bearish Pressure

On the technical side, Dogecoin is hovering near a critical support level at $0.21. If it breaks below this, the structure turns cleanly bearish. The next key support is at $0.20, but the broader bearish target sits at $0.18, which would mark a 15% drop from current prices.

Meanwhile, the Bull and Bear Power (BBP) indicator has flipped negative. This means that selling strength has overtaken buying power, reinforcing what the on-chain data is already showing. Retail is selling, and buyers are staying away.

The Bull-Bear Power (BBP) indicator — also known as the Elder Ray Index — measures the strength of buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears) by calculating the difference between price extremes and a moving average. It helps identify whether bullish or bearish forces are currently dominating the market.

The momentum shift is clear. If the $0.21 level fails to hold, the bearish scenario becomes increasingly likely. However, if the Dogecoin price manages to recover and push past $0.23, the bearish hypothesis would cease to exist.