Opinion: ETH Capital Inflows Reach Cycle High, ETH/BTC Exchange Rate Remains Undervalued

BlockBeats News, August 24 — On-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the trading platform flow share of ETH refers to the proportion of ETH in the total USD value of inflows and outflows for both ETH and BTC across all trading platforms. This metric is a key indicator for gauging which of the two major crypto assets, ETH or BTC, is attracting more capital attention or interest. On August 15, ETH’s flow share reached as high as 48% (red curve in the chart), marking the highest point in the current cycle so far. This ratio means that nearly half of the funds moving in and out of trading platforms are in ETH, putting it on par with BTC and indirectly confirming the market’s strong interest in ETH at present.

Comparing this data over the past 10 years with the ETH/BTC exchange rate curve (blue curve in the chart), it is evident that the red and blue lines are highly synchronized. The logic is: when more capital starts focusing on ETH, the ETH exchange rate strengthens, meaning ETH begins to outperform BTC. The historical average of ETH’s flow share is calculated to be 26% (green line in the chart). The point where the red line starts to break above the green line can be seen as a starting signal—when the flow share curve is about to surpass the historical average, it indicates that the ETH exchange rate is about to strengthen.

For example, on September 2, 2020, ETH’s flow share was 28% and the ETH/BTC exchange rate was 0.038. After that, the flow share climbed all the way to 49.5%, with the exchange rate rising in tandem to 0.086. In the current cycle, after ETH’s flow share bottomed out, it broke above the historical average again on May 17, 2025, at which point the ETH/BTC exchange rate was 0.024. Subsequently, as large amounts of traditional capital entered the market, ETH’s flow share continued to rise, reaching a high of 48% on August 15.

Currently, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is only around 0.04, still far from the 0.08 peak in 2021. This suggests that the ETH/BTC exchange rate remains undervalued, and as long as capital attention persists, there is theoretically still room for the exchange rate to rise. This information is shared for learning and communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.