The SEC has delayed its decision on the Grayscale Cardano ETF to October 26, 2025, but approval odds remain strong: market estimates place approval between 75–87%, reflecting continued investor confidence amid regulatory caution.
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SEC sets new decision date: October 26, 2025.
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Market-implied approval odds: Polymarket ~87%, Bloomberg analysts ~75%.
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Cardano advances: Halo2-Plutus verifier adds zero-knowledge capabilities for privacy and scalability.
Grayscale Cardano ETF delayed to Oct 26, 2025 — approval odds remain high; follow updates on COINOTAG for expert analysis and next steps.
What is the SEC decision delay for the Grayscale Cardano ETF?
The Grayscale Cardano ETF decision has been officially extended to October 26, 2025, as the SEC continues its broader review of spot crypto ETFs. The extension pushes the final regulatory determination while market indicators still favor approval.
How likely is approval for the Grayscale Cardano ETF?
Market and analyst signals point to strong approval chances. Polymarket’s market-implied odds sit near 87%, while Bloomberg analysts estimate roughly 75% probability. These estimates reflect market pricing and institutional analyst models rather than an official guarantee.
The SEC has delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF until October 2025, with approval odds still strong despite regulatory slowdowns.
- The SEC extended the Grayscale Cardano ETF decision deadline to October 26, 2025, amid a wider pattern of crypto ETF review delays.
- Market indicators (Polymarket, Bloomberg analysts) show high approval odds despite the regulatory timeline slip.
- Cardano continues technical upgrades, including the Halo2-Plutus verifier to bolster privacy and scalability.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a postponement of its decision on Grayscale’s proposed spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund until October 26, 2025. This extension aligns with recent SEC behavior of lengthening review periods for several spot crypto ETF filings.
Grayscale’s filing—intended to bring ADA exposure to regulated markets—remains active in the regulatory process. The SEC’s extension follows filings such as the NYSE Arca 19b-4 submission and administrative listings in regulatory portals of Delaware, which indicate continued procedural progress.
Why are markets still optimistic about approval?
Markets favor approval because precedent from other spot crypto ETF reviews and strong institutional interest have increased confidence. Analysts point to improved market surveillance measures, growing custody solutions, and clearer SEC communications as factors supporting positive odds.
SEC’s deadline to approve or deny the Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF is October 26, 2025.
• On Polymarket, current approval odds are at 87%
• Bloomberg analysts estimate 75% odds of approval
Do you think it will get approved?
— Cardanians (CRDN) (@Cardanians_io) August 29, 2025
How does Cardano’s tech progress affect ETF prospects?
Cardano’s introduction of the Halo2-Plutus verifier brings zero-knowledge proof integration to its smart contract layer. These upgrades enhance privacy, on-chain scalability, and developer tooling—factors that institutional investors cite when evaluating long-term network resilience.
Frequently Asked Questions
When will the SEC decide on Grayscale’s Cardano ETF?
The SEC’s current deadline for a decision is October 26, 2025. This date reflects an administrative extension and may be the final deadline under existing review timelines.
What are the current approval odds for the Grayscale Cardano ETF?
Market-implied odds vary: Polymarket shows ~87% and Bloomberg analysts estimate ~75%. These figures reflect market sentiment and analyst models, not an official agency stance.
What is the Halo2-Plutus verifier and why does it matter?
The Halo2-Plutus verifier integrates zero-knowledge proof capabilities into Cardano’s Plutus smart contract environment, improving privacy and scalability—attributes that strengthen institutional confidence in network utility.
Key Takeaways
- New SEC deadline: Decision on Grayscale Cardano ETF moved to October 26, 2025.
- High approval odds: Polymarket ~87% and Bloomberg analysts ~75% indicate market optimism.
- Technical drivers: Halo2-Plutus verifier strengthens Cardano’s privacy and scalability, supporting institutional interest.
Conclusion
The Grayscale Cardano ETF delay to October 26, 2025, extends the regulatory timeline but does not materially weaken approval prospects. Market-implied odds and ongoing Cardano improvements keep confidence elevated. For continued coverage and expert analysis, follow COINOTAG updates as the SEC decision date approaches.
