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Bitcoin Peak Coming in October or November, “Fragile Stabilization” Hits Crypto

Bitcoin Peak Coming in October or November, “Fragile Stabilization” Hits Crypto

Coinspeaker2025/09/08 16:00
By: By Parth Dubey Editor Hamza Tariq
BTC+1.27%B-2.50%HYPER+2.81%
Bitcoin has entered what analysts describe as a mature bull phase with long-term holder selling patterns and institutional demand extending the cycle.

Key Notes

  • Bitcoin may reach its cycle peak between October and November 2025.
  • Segmented long-term holder selling is making this cycle more sustainable.
  • Glassnode highlights fragile stabilization as BTC trades near $111,000.

Bitcoin’s BTC $110 877 24h volatility: 1.5% Market cap: $2.21 T Vol. 24h: $43.48 B price action is entering a critical stage as analysts suggest the next major peak could arrive in October or November with the current market experiencing what many are calling a period of “fragile stabilization.”

According to Axel Adler Jr, a crypto researcher and CryptoQuant-verified analyst, Bitcoin has now passed 504 days since the last halving.

Comparing the current cycle to previous ones, Adler argued that the market is now in a mature phase of the bull regime.

504 days have passed since the last halving.

Comparing the current cycle with the two previous ones, it can be said that the market is in a mature phase of the bull regime. In this cycle, in March at a price of $70K, there was an extreme spike in Value Days Destroyed (VDD),… pic.twitter.com/lpu4Ei43ok

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 9, 2025

A Sustainable Redistribution

In March, Bitcoin briefly spiked to $70,000, producing an extreme surge in the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) metric, which reflects long-term holder (LTH) spending.

Later distribution phases took place near $98,000 and $117,000, though neither matched the intensity of March.

Adler suggested that this segmented LTH selling, likely supported by institutional demand, has made the cycle’s redistribution process more sustainable.

Supply has been exiting in batches after new all-time highs , and the market has absorbed it effectively, stretching the cycle peak further out.

“Peak Flag”

Adler highlighted the importance of the so-called “Peak Flag,” which historically triggers when Bitcoin’s spot price is roughly 11 times higher than the LTH realized price.

The late-cycle signal usually appears when the market overheats relative to the long-term holder base.

Based on the current trajectory, Adler estimated that this signal could appear between October and November 2025, provided it coincides with a wave of experienced holder selling and a spike in volatility that eventually begins to fade.

Short-Term Structure Is Fragile

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s short-term momentum remains fragile. Over the past week, the asset has been trading just above the short-term holder cost basis, hovering around $111,000.

Indicators showed a partial recovery as RSI climbed toward neutral territory and Spot CVD improved, but trading volumes fell, reflecting a lack of conviction.

On-chain activity remained subdued. Active addresses rose back within range, but fees and transfer volumes eased. Realized cap inflows edged higher, yet Hot Capital Share softened – highlighting modest speculative flows but fragile long-term conviction. pic.twitter.com/qgehBSQ6Eo

— glassnode (@glassnode) September 9, 2025

Futures open interest ticked higher, yet funding rates declined, showing reduced appetite for leveraged bullish bets.

Options activity also leaned defensive, with elevated skew suggesting strong demand for downside protection.

ETF Inflows Also Slowing Down

ETF net inflows are slowing and trading volumes stay muted. On-chain signals showed a modest pickup in participation as active addresses rose back within range, though transfer volumes and fees dropped.

Profitability metrics such as supply in profit, NUPL, and realized profit and loss improved slightly, but without signaling the type of euphoria usually seen near market tops.

Overall, these metrics confirm that the market is currently stable but fragile. Adler’s late-cycle framework points to a potential peak window later this year, making BTC the next crypto to explode in 2025.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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