Key Notes
- South Korea's Kospi index reached a record high of 4,340 points on Sept.11.
- Historically, Kospi peaks have aligned with Bitcoin cycle tops in 2017 and 2021.
- Analysts suggest this correlation signals that the current Bitcoin bull run may be nearing its end.
South Korea’s main equity index, the Kospi, climbed to a record high of 4,340 points, driven by strong earnings in the semiconductor sector and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts.
However, after a 38% gain year-to-date, some market participants warn of potential profit-taking if corporate earnings fail to meet expectations.
This development is prompting caution among some analysts. Based on historical data, the new high for the Kospi could indicate that the bull run for Bitcoin BTC $114 192 24h volatility: 1.6% Market cap: $2.27 T Vol. 24h: $48.61 B is approaching its conclusion.
Analysis from the crypto platform Alphractal shows a pattern of the Kospi and Bitcoin (BTC) peaking around the same time.
This occurred in late 2017 and again in the second half of 2021, with both assets entering bear markets shortly after.
The KOSPI Composite Index, South Korea’s main stock index, has just reached a new all-time high — a level not seen since 2021.
📌 Interesting fact: every time the KOSPI has set a new record high, Bitcoin was trading close to its all-time high of the cycle. The last time this…
— Alphractal (@Alphractal) September 11, 2025
Kospi and Bitcoin Show Historical Correlation
The relationship between the two assets highlights their shared sensitivity to global economic shifts. When investor confidence is high, capital tends to flow into both emerging markets like South Korea and riskier assets such as crypto.
This pattern suggests that a peak in the Kospi could precede a similar move for the Bitcoin price.
Joao Wedson, the CEO of Alphractal, noted that the index’s new high serves as an incremental signal that the current Bitcoin cycle peak may be near. He explained that smart money often rotates between different asset classes, and this could be a sign of such a shift.
Everyone is focused on the S&P 500, and few in the Western world pay attention to the KOSPI, which is often far more interesting to compare with Bitcoin.
Now that the KOSPI has reached a new all-time high, it serves as yet another incremental signal that the Bitcoin cycle may be…
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) September 11, 2025
This rotation involves taking profits from assets that have seen significant gains and reallocating capital to markets with different growth cycles or lower perceived risk.
The Kospi’s peak could therefore represent a broader de-risking trend among institutional investors.
While the correlation is not a definitive predictor of market behavior, it provides a point of consideration for traders monitoring the four-year cycle . The connection to macroeconomic conditions underscores how digital assets are increasingly tied to the broader financial markets.
