On September 13, 2025,
This sharp movement in price has captured the interest of traders and investors, yet there were no notable announcements from institutions or regulators that could be tied directly to the surge. The spike took place alongside an overall recovery in the crypto market, which saw multiple alternative coins make gains, with HOLO’s jump being especially significant. There were no reports of new products, partnerships, or changes in governance, suggesting that the price behavior may stem from speculative trades or fluctuations in order flow rather than fundamental developments.
Technical analysis offers a mixed perspective. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently entered overbought territory for the first time in weeks, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remain well below the current price, suggesting that the long-term trend is still downward. On-chain activity data showed a slight rise in active addresses, but not at levels typically seen during widespread accumulation or major sell-offs by large holders.
Backtest Hypothesis
A sample trading strategy was proposed, taking into account the heightened volatility and the technical trends observed. This approach focuses on short-term trades, activating when the RSI diverges and moving averages cross. The strategy calls for opening a long position when the RSI dips under 30 and the 50-day average rises above the 200-day average, while the exit is triggered if the RSI climbs above 70 or if the 50-day average drops back below the 200-day average.
The hypothesis suggests this approach could have taken advantage of short-term rallies within the broader downward trend. With the current RSI value and the latest price uptick, the model is set to be put to the test in upcoming trading sessions. The strategy relies solely on technical indicators and trend-following, without considering fundamental news or external developments.