New participants are driving Bitcoin's decline, with widespread panic selling influencing the market's direction

The future direction of Bitcoin’s price is being closely monitored, with experts cautioning about the likelihood of a major correction as a new bear market approaches. According to recent insights from 10X Research, around 70% of the current wave of selling can be traced to individuals who acquired

in the past quarter, illustrating that less experienced traders are driving much of the recent sell-off. This behavior is consistent with previous Bitcoin market cycles, where dramatic drops are frequently succeeded by strong recoveries, although the scale of these moves often depends on broader economic and policy factors.

Ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties, especially those linked to the expected actions of U.S. President Donald Trump, have intensified doubts about when the next bear market might begin. Swissblock analysts point to Trump’s plans for increased tariffs as a major source of anxiety, likening the uncertainty to a “Sword of Damocles” hanging over global finance. The Trump administration’s recent announcement of a Bitcoin reserve has also been interpreted as a “sell the news” event, with its impact already reflected in prices. Additionally, Network Economist Timothy Peterson has suggested that the Federal Reserve may hold off on lowering interest rates in 2025, which could further support a negative market trend.

Monte Carlo modeling by Diaman Partners has been used to estimate how deep the next Bitcoin downturn might go, taking into account the asset’s historic cycles and volatility. Using a 200-week moving average as a foundation, the analysis puts the odds at 5% that Bitcoin could fall under $41,000 by the end of 2026, while identifying about $60,000 as a possible support level if history repeats. This projection assumes Bitcoin will continue to follow its pattern of major retracements—often 75% or more—though recent cycles have seen milder volatility. Should Bitcoin hit a new peak before dropping, a drawdown of 69%, similar to previous cycles, could see prices reach as low as $260,000 in 2025.

Given these possible developments, 10X Research advises traders to employ active risk management techniques—such as setting stop-losses, utilizing on-chain data, and factoring in both macroeconomic and technical signals when making decisions. The firm highlights that the present level of volatility in the digital asset market does not favor passive, long-term investment approaches. Instead, it recommends that market participants make well-informed, strategic choices based on thorough analysis.

Looking at Bitcoin’s past bull and bear cycles further reveals the potential for large price movements. Since 2013, after dips of 70% or greater, Bitcoin has recovered with an average surge of 3,485%, with median rebounds of 1,692%. During bull markets, corrections of 20% or more are common, averaging a 27% pullback. This data indicates that while prices often stabilize after a 70–85% drop, ongoing caution and readiness for volatility are still necessary for traders.

The overall crypto landscape is also undergoing changes.

, for instance, has outpaced Bitcoin in the third quarter of 2025, prompting speculation about whether Altseason 2025 is on the horizon. Technical signals for Ethereum, like RSI and MACD, point to continued upward momentum, which stands in sharp contrast to Bitcoin’s more subdued price behavior. Despite this, the ETH/BTC ratio—a key measure of Ethereum’s strength relative to Bitcoin—has remained below 0.05 for over a year, showing that Bitcoin still commands the dominant position as the principal asset in the market.

To sum up, historical market cycles and present-day conditions suggest that Bitcoin could be facing a drawdown of up to 70% in the next bear market. Experts emphasize the need for dynamic trading tactics, risk mitigation, and attentiveness to broader economic trends to navigate ongoing volatility. While Ethereum’s recent performance adds new complexity to the crypto market outlook, Bitcoin’s established role as a core store of value and its history of price swings mean that traders should continue to brace for considerable price movement ahead.