El Salvador Divides Bitcoin Holdings: Readying for Quantum Era or Asserting National Autonomy?
El Salvador has redistributed its $678 million
Although the risk from quantum computing is not immediate, it stems from Bitcoin’s use of the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). When coins are sent from an address, its public key is revealed on the blockchain, potentially making it vulnerable to quantum attacks. While today’s quantum computers are not capable of breaking ECDSA, some experts caution that future technological progress could make it possible to calculate private keys from public ones. Quantum research group Project Eleven estimates that if quantum algorithms like Shor’s become practical, more than 6 million BTC could be at risk title2 [ 2 ]. El Salvador’s proactive measure—relocating funds to addresses that have never been used—keeps public keys confidential until they are required, thereby lowering potential exposure.
There is ongoing debate in the industry over how urgent the quantum threat really is. Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy called concerns about quantum computing “hype,” pointing out that Bitcoin’s codebase can be updated via software if necessary title3 [ 3 ]. On the other hand, Project Eleven’s findings underscore a hypothetical vulnerability, even while noting that no real-world quantum breakthroughs have yet occurred. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) began standardizing post-quantum cryptography in 2022, with projections for widespread adoption over the next 10 to 20 years title4 [ 4 ]. El Salvador’s actions fit this timeline, establishing it as a leader in national Bitcoin safekeeping and calculated risk management.
This decision also ties into larger economic and political developments. In February 2025, El Salvador secured a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF, contingent on reducing its Bitcoin initiatives, including a halt to public purchases title5 [ 5 ]. Despite these terms, the government has continued to add to its Bitcoin holdings via non-governmental means, technically remaining within IMF guidelines while still increasing its reserves. The IMF’s latest report reiterated its concerns about Bitcoin’s volatility and its designation as legal tender, though El Salvador’s Bitcoin assets reached 6,284 BTC by late 2024 title6 [ 6 ]. President Nayib Bukele has presented the policy as a matter of national financial sovereignty, highlighting Bitcoin’s potential for long-term economic autonomy.
Some critics view the quantum justification as more of a symbolic gesture than an urgent necessity. While dividing reserves is considered prudent Bitcoin management, the actual quantum threat remains largely theoretical at present. Supporters, however, argue that such forward-thinking measures are valuable. By implementing best practices—like limiting address reuse and splitting up holdings—El Salvador is setting an example for institutional Bitcoin storage. This also strengthens the country’s position as a crypto-friendly nation, which could help attract both investors and developers to its digital sector title7 [ 7 ].
Global reactions are varied. Some organizations, such as CasaHODL, commend El Salvador’s anticipatory tactics, while others, including the IMF, see the move as risky. The country’s strategy of balancing openness through public dashboards and technical security measures may serve as a model for how other states approach digital assets. As quantum technology advances, El Salvador’s stance could mark the beginning of a global move toward quantum-resilient financial infrastructure that extends beyond Bitcoin.
