Solana Faces $130 Challenge: Big Investors, Regulations, and Institutional Moves Intersect

Solana (SOL) has seen increased price swings in early 2025, as blockchain data points to notable changes in market behavior. After hovering around $125 at the end of 2024,

climbed back to $134 by mid-2025, fueled by renewed enthusiasm for its fast DApp platform and a shift of capital into rapidly expanding projects. Nevertheless, the network is still trading 33% below its January 2025 high of $293. On-chain indicators reveal heightened activity from large holders, with substantial transfers to cold wallets and outflows from exchanges suggesting accumulation by investors with a long-term outlook. Despite this, a major whale’s $2.6 billion move from to in August 2025 has sparked worries about increased selling pressure and possible liquidity issues for alternative coins such as Solana .

Chart analysis of Solana’s recent movements highlights a tentative rebound. The token has found support between $130 and $132, a crucial area reinforced by recent lows, but faces resistance in the $144–$150 range. Technical signals, including a positive MACD crossover and higher trading volumes during upward moves, point to short-term bullishness. Still, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 55, indicating there is room for further upside but not yet showing overbought conditions. Experts warn that if Solana fails to stay above $130, it could slip back toward $125, testing lower support zones .

Interest from institutional players in Solana has grown with the introduction of new investment products. Flipster, a crypto derivatives exchange, became the first to launch

perpetual contracts for Solana in September 2025, utilizing the regulated stablecoin issued by . Alongside this, Brazil’s B3 exchange rolled out Solana futures in 2025, signaling increasing institutional involvement. B3’s Bitcoin futures already see monthly volumes of R$5 billion ($860 million), and the addition of Solana futures is expected to draw in both hedgers and speculators, further embedding Solana in mainstream financial markets .

Changes in Brazil’s regulatory landscape, where stablecoins now represent 90% of crypto trades, are also shaping Solana’s environment. The government’s plan to limit stablecoin withdrawals to personal wallets and its consideration of linking the Pix payment system with global instant payment networks could impact international Solana transactions. While these steps are intended to fight financial crime and tax evasion, they could also influence liquidity and transaction speeds on Solana’s high-capacity network .

Opinions remain split regarding Solana’s future. Raoul Pal from Real Vision believes Solana’s current stage on the adoption curve could allow it to outperform Ethereum and Bitcoin in 2025, citing rising wallet numbers and DeFi participation. On the other hand, critics point to ongoing obstacles, such as the need for stronger demand drivers and more institutional engagement. Some skeptics caution that without ETF products or broader use in tokenized assets, Solana’s price may continue to be unstable .

The combination of technical momentum, new institutional offerings, and evolving regulations is likely to shape Solana’s direction. While the network demonstrates durability—with daily transaction volumes steady at 1 billion and a growing validator base—macroeconomic trends and the actions of large holders will continue to play a crucial role. For now, the market is watching to see if Solana can maintain its upward trend or if renewed selling will emerge as the broader crypto market shifts.