BTC’s Rally: Retail Hype Meets Quiet Whale Activity

Recent on-chain analysis of Bitcoin has shown a notable surge in new demand within the crypto space, as more than 73,000 BTC have been transferred into wallets that are less than a month old. This uptick has sparked renewed optimism about a possible bullish trend, with short-term holders (STH) and newcomers seemingly absorbing the selling activity from long-term holders (LTH). The Net Position Change (NPC) for the youngest group of BTC holders has shifted into positive territory, signaling broader investor engagement and rising confidence in the market.

Insights from CryptoQuant reveal that the NPC for wallets holding

for under one month reached +73,702 BTC as of September 23, marking a sharp turnaround from earlier negative trends. This movement points to a rapid influx of new funds, fueled by both individual and institutional investors. The report notes that this fresh demand is essential in counterbalancing the outflows from LTH, who are currently offloading BTC at a pace of around -145,000 BTC. Such patterns are often seen in bull markets, where early participants take profits while new buyers help sustain upward price momentum.

This accumulation pattern extends beyond just the newest holders. STH—those who have owned BTC for less than six months—have also experienced an NPC increase to +159,098 BTC. This reflects strong interest from a range of investors, supporting the idea of a strengthening market. According to the CryptoQuant contributor, the current scenario—where LTH profit-taking is met by robust buying from new entrants—is a hallmark of a maturing bull cycle. The positive shift among the youngest holders is seen as an early sign of growing conviction among both retail and institutional investors.

Nevertheless, there are ongoing concerns about how long this rally can last. Exchange inflows remain high, which could indicate mounting selling pressure, especially from retail traders. Moreover, the lack of participation from Bitcoin “whales”—large holders with significant BTC balances—has led to some caution. These major players, often viewed as key drivers of price surges, have yet to join the current accumulation phase. Still, Bitcoin network activity has reached a new high for 2025, with prices holding steady near $112,804.

Additional analysis of accumulation wallet data highlights the underlying strength of the market. Addresses holding more than 10 BTC—categorized as accumulation wallets—have absorbed 30,754 BTC in a single period, amounting to $3.3 billion. These wallets, which are known for rarely selling, now collectively hold 2.91 million BTC, with an average acquisition price of $64,000. This trend points to a shift in market behavior, as investors increasingly favor long-term holding over frequent trading. Corporate entities and institutional treasuries have also played a role, with 3.41 million BTC now held in corporate reserves.

While the data suggests a resilient market foundation, experts warn that the rally’s longevity may depend on whether large holders eventually participate. At present, demand is mainly driven by retail investors and mid-sized whales, which, although encouraging, may not have enough capital to maintain a prolonged bull run. The fear and greed index currently stands at 51, reflecting a neutral outlook and a move away from recent periods of excessive optimism, hinting at a possible consolidation phase.

The combination of on-chain metrics and investor actions indicates that Bitcoin’s market is at a pivotal point. The influx of new capital into young wallets and accumulation addresses, along with the absorption of LTH sell-offs, provides a solid base for further price growth. However, the lack of whale involvement and persistent high exchange inflows present risks that could limit short-term gains. As the market digests these factors, the next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether the rally evolves from being driven by retail investors to one supported by broader institutional and macroeconomic forces.