MetaMask Coin Launch Preview: Massive Airdrop, Hundred Billion Valuation, and Potential Concerns

Original Article Title: $MASK Could Reach $12B FDV and Deliver Largest Airdrop Ever

Original Article Author: The Smart Ape, Partner at LBank
Original Article Translation: Tim, PANews

I think a piece of news has been overlooked on Crypto Twitter recently, the CEO of ConsenSys announced that the MetaMask token is about to be launched. His exact words were: "The MASK token is about to debut, possibly sooner than you expect."

MetaMask Adoption

I personally have not been using MetaMask for a while now as I prefer Rabby's interface and features, but MetaMask still holds the first-mover advantage. It remains the most popular wallet to date, with 143 million users.

MetaMask Revenue Analysis

MetaMask has multiple sources of revenue:

· MetaMask Swap: Built-in DEX aggregator, charging approximately 0.9% fee per swap

· On/Off Ramp: Buying cryptocurrency with a bank card

· Cross-chain Bridge: Token cross-chain transfers

· Staking: Direct ETH staking via MetaMask Portfolio

· Institutional Edition: MetaMask's institutional solution for funds and enterprises.

Over the past three months, MetaMask's weekly transaction volume has ranged between $60 million and $200 million.

This means an average weekly revenue of $1.5 million, with an annual revenue of approximately $72 million. The revenue was even higher last year, with a weekly income of around $2.5 million and an annual revenue of $120 million.

The cross-chain bridge revenue can reach $100,000 per day, adding $36 million annually.

Other income contributes approximately $10 million annually, bringing MetaMask's total annual revenue to around $120 million.

FDV Estimate

We do not yet know MetaMask's tokenomics and actual utility, but it would not be surprising if there is some form of revenue sharing or buyback mechanism. If so, the revenue would drive its valuation.

To gauge a reasonable fully diluted valuation (FDV) / revenue multiple, we can look at other wallet tokens such as TWT, SFP, XDEFI, and GNO.

Under a conservative estimate, the fully diluted valuation-to-revenue ratio could reach up to 100x.

Based on the current annual revenue of around $120 million, this would mean its fully diluted valuation could be close to $12 billion.

In comparison, Trust Wallet, the second-largest wallet by usage, has a TWT token FDV of $1.32 billion, so it is hard to imagine the issuance valuation of the MetaMask token being less than a $5 billion FDV.

Potentially the Largest Airdrop Ever

Some of the largest airdrops in history include Uniswap, ApeCoin, dYdX, and Arbitrum, and the MetaMask airdrop is very likely to disrupt this top airdrop list and may even join or surpass that league.

If we assume an FDV of $12 billion and a 20% airdrop to MetaMask users, the potential distributed amount would reach $2.4 billion, easily placing it in the top three.

Despite the large sum, it will be distributed among over 140 million users. The uniqueness of this airdrop lies in its extensive eligible user base, which both magnifies the total value and expands the coverage.

With a massive user base, sustained revenue, clear utility, and once-every-four-years market hype, it may become a historic airdrop event.

代币即将发布的应对策略

I usually say to maximize your airdrop opportunity, but if you haven't started actively participating yet, it may now be too late, especially considering the ConsenSys CEO's hint at the imminent mainnet launch.

I will closely monitor the pre-listing FDV: if the opening valuation is below $50 billion, early buying might be very attractive, although the expected volatility will be extremely high.

MetaMask may also introduce a token incentive program, such as mUSD liquidity pools, staking opportunities, or trading rewards, which could be a good way to earn MetaMask Tokens early on with a high annual percentage yield.

Considering the potentially large number of token recipients, the first 24 hours after the airdrop are likely to see extremely volatile market movements, creating significant arbitrage opportunities between various centralized and decentralized exchanges.

Concerns Post LINEA Mishap

ConsenSys launched LINEA a few weeks ago but made some significant missteps.

There were technical issues during the TGE, including distribution delays and network congestion.

The actual utility of the token remains unclear, and immediately after the airdrop, large whale sell-offs occurred.

Many have complained that Binance Alpha users received faster and more favorable access than the majority of the community.

I just hope ConsenSys can learn from past mistakes and avoid repeating them with the MetaMask project, especially by preventing scenarios where Binance Alpha or internal personnel have earlier access to tokens and listing information than the core MetaMask user base.