XRP's ETF-Fueled Surge Encounters Regulatory Hurdles
XRP has seen considerable price swings in recent months, fueling discussions among market watchers and investors regarding its short-term outlook. After retreating from its July 2025 high of $3.6655 down to $2.8745, the token has encountered important technical indicators, such as the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) and a downward channel that may form part of a cup-and-handle setup. Alongside a bullish flag and indications of a second Elliott Wave phase, these signals point to a potential recovery. Nonetheless, XRP is still trading beneath the Ichimoku cloud, which signals ongoing bearish sentiment XRP Price Prediction: Ripple to Surge as Bullish Catalysts Rise [ 1 ].
An essential factor influencing XRP’s price is the anticipated approval of spot ETFs. According to Polymarket, there is now over a 95% chance that several
Technical experts anticipate further upside if XRP remains above crucial support zones. Recent analysis by Dark Defender highlights an Elliott Wave structure, with XRP now entering Wave 3—historically the most dynamic phase—after completing the first two waves. This setup, together with a Golden Cross in the MVRV ratio and the 200-day SMA, points to a possible rally toward $18.22–$23.20 by November 2025, provided the price stays above $1.92–$2.10 during any short-term pullbacks XRP Price Poised for Major Surge to $23 Says Crypto Analyst [ 3 ]. On the other hand, if XRP fails to hold the 200 EMA, it could decline to the $1.25–$1.75 range, with a symmetrical triangle pattern suggesting a period of consolidation before a significant move XRP’s Critical $2.70 Support and the Institutional Liquidity Shift as Gemini Lines Up Ripple for IPO [ 5 ].
Growing institutional involvement and clearer regulations are strengthening XRP’s underlying value. Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) platform, which is utilized by over 300 institutions including Santander and SBI Holdings, handled $1.3 trillion in cross-border payments in Q2 2025, cutting settlement costs by 60–90%. The conclusion of Ripple’s legal dispute with the SEC in August 2025, resulting in a $125 million settlement, has paved the way for new ETF launches and expanded access to U.S. investors. Furthermore, Gemini’s $75 million credit line to Ripple, denominated in RLUSD, highlights increasing confidence in XRP as a bridge for liquidity between traditional finance and blockchain networks XRP Faces Institutional Shift as Coinbase Slashes Holdings [ 7 ].
Despite positive signals, some institutional players remain cautious. Coinbase’s decision to reduce its XRP holdings by 57.4% since June 2025 points to ongoing regulatory concerns, even after the SEC case was dropped. While this move isn’t necessarily bearish, it does show that institutions are still wary of compliance risks and are adjusting their portfolios accordingly. Short-term traders are watching the $2.70 support closely; a drop below this level could lead to a test of $2.45, while a sustained move above $3.10 might spark renewed upward momentum XRP Faces Institutional Shift as Coinbase Slashes Holdings [ 7 ].
XRP’s market is now at a pivotal moment. Bullish chart patterns, ETF inflows, and institutional backing point to a possible breakout, but regulatory uncertainties and cautious institutional behavior could bring further volatility. Forecasts vary widely: conservative projections see XRP at $3.47 in 2025, while more optimistic analysts predict it could reach $23 by year’s end XRP Price Prediction 2025,2030,2040,2050 - How High Can XRP Go? [ 2 ] XRP Price Poised for Major Surge to $23 Says Crypto Analyst [ 3 ]. Whether XRP can maintain key support levels and adapt to regulatory changes will determine if it enters a prolonged bull market or faces a deeper pullback.
