Arthur Hayes New Article: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Bull Cycle May Fail, USD and RMB Liquidity Become Key Variables

BlockBeats News, October 9, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of a certain exchange, published his latest article "Long Live the King!". The article states that each bitcoin bull market peak is related to changes in the "price and supply" of the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, and that the current cycle differs from the previous four-year pattern.

He reviewed the three cycles from 2009 to 2021: when US dollar/Chinese yuan credit growth slowed or contracted and interest rates rose, bitcoin peaked and declined; when there was large-scale US dollar QE, helicopter money, or strong credit expansion in China, the price strengthened.

The article points out that the Federal Reserve's tendency to lower interest rates and expand money supply, together with signals from China ending deflation and moderately increasing credit, may extend the current rally.