20 days. The Federal Reserve’s next big meeting is just 20 days away, and crypto traders are pacing nervously, like caffeinated cats on a hot tin roof.
Why? Because the Fed’s post-shutdown conference , led by Chair Jay Powell, promises more than just the usual rate cut whispers. It might just tilt the whole crypto industry.
Macro and crypto
Cue the September FOMC minutes, fresh from the Fed’s dusty archives.
Spoiler alert, the employment numbers took a dip, with 32,000 jobs vanishing in September according to ADP.
That’s a strong argument for easing off the brakes, rate cuts might not just be a maybe, they’re edging closer to probably.
The report even spelled it out that nearly everyone expects a 25 basis point chop at the next meeting, and half the gang is betting on another trim in October.
Translation? The Fed is gearing up for potentially softer money moves.
Now, toss in the Federal shutdown’s shadow looming over the economy.
The shutdown’s impact on banks will be a headline act at the upcoming Community Bank Conference.
How banks fare here is a crystal ball for the wider U.S. macro story and, by extension, crypto’s fortunes. Why bother? Because crypto markets have been doing their best impression of a macroeconomic weather vane lately, swaying with every economic breeze.
New ATH
Crypto investors don’t just glance nervously at Fed speeches, they scrutinize them like conspiracy theorists chasing aliens.
The government shutdown jitters, coupled with delays in key economic data like CPI and employment reports, have funneled $300 billion into crypto realms. Bitcoin itself danced proudly past $125,000, setting a new ATH that makes pump-up speeches look tame.
The crypto market has been front-running the narrative, betting heavily on those anticipated rate cuts.
But will Powell deliver? That cliffhanger has U.S. traders waking up with macroeconomic jitters, watching every syllable from the Fed as if it were the plot twist in a thriller.
Safe havens
But don’t forget, the U.S. dollar index just busted through the 98 barrier, flexing newfound muscle.
A stronger dollar means liquidity tightens, think of it as the universe’s way of making USD trades pricier, pushing riskier assets like crypto into the hot seat.
Toss in a dip in the 10-year Industry expert say treasury yield below 4.15% , showing money quietly tiptoeing back into safer havens.
The $90 billion crypto sell-off this week was part of a broader money migration, all centered around what the Fed says next.
So here we are, on the edge of the Fed’s shutdown post-mortem conference. Will it pump life into crypto, or cool things down? We can’t know, but the event shaping crypto’s next big move.
Cryptocurrency and Web3 expert, founder of Kriptoworld
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With years of experience covering the blockchain space, András delivers insightful reporting on DeFi, tokenization, altcoins, and crypto regulations shaping the digital economy.
