According to ChainCatcher, on-chain data analyst Murphy published a post comparing the October 11 crash with the previous deep bear market triggered by the Luna collapse. In the last cycle, the external factor for the bull-to-bear transition was the Federal Reserve's shift from loose to tight monetary policy, while the internal factor was the Luna collapse in May 2022, which directly destroyed market confidence and became the catalyst for BTC's entry into a full bear market.
During the Luna collapse from May 10 to May 11, 2022, the BTC balance on a certain exchange saw explosive growth, with a peak 7-day average inflow of 48,595 BTC on May 10, while the price continued to fall. This kind of panic-driven, cost-ignoring exodus reflected that investors' confidence was nearly shattered. In contrast, during the October 11 crash, there was no observed large inflow to any exchange. Instead, the 7-day average still maintained a net outflow of 5,338 BTC. Despite the impact of the sudden event, the off-exchange demand (excluding ETF) did not decrease, and investors remained confident in BTC at around $110,000.
On May 10, 2022, among all large BTC transfers, whales with single transactions exceeding $10 million collectively transferred $980 million into a certain exchange. However, during the October 11 crash, whales with single transactions over $10 million collectively withdrew $380 million from a certain exchange. Even though the theoretical losses for these large holders in this crash were much greater than those of ordinary retail investors, they still chose to continue accumulating BTC rather than selling at a loss and exiting the market.