📖 Event Review
Recently, the ETH market has experienced a series of dramatic fluctuations. From market liquidations and resets to successive announcements of technical upgrades, multiple factors have intertwined to drive a rapid price surge in a short period. As early as 23:01, some market participants pointed out that due to a large number of leveraged positions being liquidated, ETH's open interest plummeted to the level seen when the price was at 3K earlier this year, while the price had already soared to 4K. Subsequently, around 23:17, news about the ETH Fusaka upgrade was released, highlighting improvements in on-chain throughput, blob capacity, and validator efficiency. Immediately after, starting from 23:30, driven by expectations of macro easing and market structure adjustments, ETH quickly climbed from around $3976, surging to about $4098 within 41 minutes, then continued to rise to $4163, and finally, after a brief profit-taking, fell back to around $4114.68 at about 00:40.
🕒 Timeline
- 23:01: Market analysis mentioned that due to a large number of leveraged positions being liquidated, ETH's open interest dropped sharply, indicating a reset opportunity.
- 23:17: News of the ETH Fusaka upgrade was released, with testing completed, showing positive signals of a technical upgrade.
- 23:30: ETH hovered in the $3976–$3979 range, market sentiment began to improve, and a divergence between bulls and bears started to emerge.
- 23:30-00:11: Driven by a rapid concentration of buying, ETH's price soared from about $3976 to $4098 within 41 minutes, an increase of approximately 3.07%.
- 23:30-00:20: Continued buying pushed the rebound further, rising from about $3979 to $4163, with an overall increase of 4.64%, setting a new short-term high.
- 00:40: After the rapid rise, some profit-taking occurred, and ETH's price fell back to around $4114.68, indicating emerging market divergence.
🔍 Cause Analysis
The market's sharp volatility was not accidental but the result of multiple factors working together:
Macro Policy Signals and Expectations of Liquidity Easing
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut soared to over 90%. Combined with uncertainties from some governments and trade frictions, both institutional and retail funds shifted towards safe-haven assets and flowed into the crypto market, raising overall risk appetite.Market Structure Reset and Leveraged Liquidations
After a large number of high-leverage positions were liquidated, market open interest dropped to a low level. This "reset" phenomenon not only reduced systemic risk but also released the forced liquidation of both long and short positions, creating conditions for the rapid return of funds.Technical Upgrade Boosts Confidence
News of the successful completion of the ETH Fusaka upgrade test indicates continuous iteration and upgrading of on-chain technology. Improvements such as expanding L1 throughput, increasing blob capacity, and optimizing validator efficiency help enhance market expectations for future network performance.
📊 Technical Analysis
Based on the 45-minute ETH/USDT candlestick data from Binance USDT perpetual contracts, the technical side shows the following characteristics:
- Moving Average System: The current price is above EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120, indicating a strong upward trend overall. However, the price faces some resistance near MA50, and the risk of a medium-term pullback should not be ignored.
- KDJ Indicator: The KDJ indicator is currently in the overbought region and starting to converge, suggesting a possible short-term pullback or adjustment.
- MACD and RSI: The MACD histogram continues to grow, indicating strengthening upward momentum; at the same time, RSI breaking through the upward trendline signals bullishness, but some signals (such as TD price reversal) have begun to show early signs of trend change.
- OBV Indicator: The OBV trend turning from positive to negative reflects deteriorating market sentiment between bulls and bears. Meanwhile, large liquidation data (a total of $10 million in liquidations within the past hour, with 87% being short positions) suggests intense market volatility.
- Volume Analysis: Recent trading volume has increased by 20.52% compared to the 20-day average, indicating enhanced medium-term trading activity; at the same time, a net inflow of about $200 million in major funds shows significant institutional participation.
🔮 Market Outlook
Combining multiple signals from both fundamentals and technicals, the future ETH market may face the following trends:
Short-term Adjustment and Volatility
After a large influx of funds, profit-taking may cause a brief price adjustment. Investors should pay attention to position management and set clear take-profit and stop-loss strategies.Technical Upgrade Continues to Drive Uptrend
If the Fusaka upgrade is successfully implemented and continues to deliver technical dividends, market confidence is expected to be further boosted. Continued institutional accumulation may push ETH prices to new range highs.Macro Policy Still Dominates Risk
Although expectations of liquidity easing provide some support, Federal Reserve policy and global economic uncertainties will continue to have a significant impact on the market. Investors should remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in macro data.
Overall, ETH is currently in a stage of capital inflow after a structural reset. Both technical upgrades and expectations of macro easing are positive factors, but short-term high volatility may also bring uncertain risks. It is recommended that investors buy on dips while closely monitoring market sentiment and further changes in technical indicators, and maintain sound risk control.
