Seniors Left in the Dark to Manage Finances as 2026 COLA Postponed Due to Shutdown
The announcement of the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) has been postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown, leaving 75 million recipients uncertain about their upcoming benefit increases. The Social Security Administration (SSA) originally intended to reveal the COLA on October 15, aligning with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) planned release of September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. However, the shutdown interrupted federal activities, causing the CPI—and consequently, the COLA—to be rescheduled for October 24, as reported by USA Today.
This postponement is a result of the shutdown disrupting the collection of economic data, which is essential for determining the COLA. The adjustment, which affects payments to retirees, people with disabilities, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiaries, is calculated using the third-quarter Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). With the September CPI-W data now delayed, the SSA will rely on the October 24 release to set the 2026 COLA, which is still expected to be implemented in January 2026 without further postponements, according to FedSmith.
as reported by CBS News.>Forecasts for the 2026 COLA vary, but most suggest a moderate rise. The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy organization, predicts a 2.7% increase, while AARP expects the adjustment to fall between 2.6% and 2.9%. These estimates would mean a slight increase from the 2.5% rise in 2025, but still much lower than the 8.7% surge seen in 2023 during the pandemic. Experts attribute the expected 2.7% to 2.8% range to inflation, which has cooled from its 2022 peak but remains above pre-pandemic levels. If the COLA is set at 2.7%, beneficiaries would see an average monthly boost of $50, or about $600 a year, CBS News notes.
according to a report from Newsmax.>This delay has heightened financial uncertainty for retirees, many of whom depend on COLA updates to budget for essentials such as housing, medical care, and food. Shannon Benton, executive director of the Senior Citizens League, criticized the ongoing political stalemate, saying, "Seniors are forced to budget in the dark" without knowing their 2026 income increase. Adding to the challenge, Medicare Part B premiums are projected to rise by $21.50 per month in 2026, but a hold-harmless rule will prevent benefit reductions from offsetting this increase, according to Newsmax.
as detailed in a CNBC report.>The wider impact of the delay exposes weaknesses in federal benefits that depend on economic indicators. The BLS's October 24 CPI release is not only vital for the COLA but also for federal retirees under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS). These retirees receive COLAs linked to Social Security, though FERS participants typically get a smaller increase if inflation exceeds 2%. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) now faces tighter deadlines to process these changes, increasing administrative pressure before January 2026 payments, CNBC reports.
based on an AARP analysis.>There are also ongoing concerns about the long-term stability of Social Security. The Social Security Board of Trustees estimates that the program's trust funds will run out by 2034, after which only 81% of scheduled benefits could be paid. While the 2026 COLA delay is a short-term administrative issue, it highlights the vulnerability of a system already facing demographic and financial pressures. Advocacy groups such as AARP are urging lawmakers to address these deeper problems, stressing that "Social Security is a lifeline for millions of older Americans," according to AARP.
as reported by U.S. News.>Although the October 24 CPI release will eventually provide answers, the delay has already increased anxiety among recipients. For many, this uncertainty is a clear example of how political gridlock can disrupt vital services. Mary Johnson, a policy analyst specializing in Social Security and Medicare, remarked, "This isn't just about numbers—it's about real people trying to manage their lives without a clear financial plan." The SSA intends to send out COLA notifications in December, but the shortened timeline raises the risk of processing mistakes, U.S. News reports.
