Analysis: This cycle has approached the bull-bear boundary three times without breaking below it; the current fair value of BTC is $97,000

According to ChainCatcher, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that the fair value of bitcoin is calculated as the historical cumulative average of MVRV. If the market's valuation level (MVRV) is at the historical average, then the price of BTC should be near this level. Therefore, the fair value is regarded as the "center of mean reversion." Over the past 10 years, in the previous three cycles of BTC, the fair value (blue line) has almost acted as the dividing line between bull and bear cycles.

After the bull market starts, even if BTC experiences a pullback, it is unlikely to fall below the blue line; every time value reverts, it triggers strong buying interest. In this cycle, BTC has been operating above its fair value for nearly 2 years. During this period, there have been three instances where it came extremely close to the blue line: after the ETF approval, when the "good news was already priced in"; the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024; and the tariff crisis in April 2025. However, it has never fallen below the fair value. In a bull market, BTC returning to its fair value is considered the best buying opportunity.

Currently, the blue line is at $97,000. If traders believe the bull market foundation remains, then buying BTC when it approaches $97,000 would be highly cost-effective. If users believe the market has already entered a bear phase, they can continue to wait for a deep bear market, where there might be an opportunity to pick up cheap chips below $55,000. This analysis is for educational and communication purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.