10x Research: Diminished purchasing power of digital treasury companies and whale sell-offs are limiting Bitcoin's upside

Jinse Finance reported that 10x Research posted on X, stating that Bitcoin's significant consolidation will not last forever. Bitcoin's performance is not driven by cycles, but rather by how much new capital enters the market to offset the capital exiting. Unlike gold, Bitcoin's price depends more on the actual net new demand flowing into the asset, rather than interest rate expectations. The current market narrative is mainly shaped by two dominant crypto themes. The core theme is that Digital Asset Treasury companies are running out of purchasing power, while the selling pressure from traditional holders is temporarily limiting Bitcoin's upside potential. We have long anticipated that Bitcoin's volatility would contract after the momentum brought by the US GENIUS Act fades, causing the market to enter an "air pocket" during Congress's summer recess. The slowdown in news flow is expected to suppress volatility, compress the net asset value of Bitcoin treasury companies, and limit aggressive stock placements and additional Bitcoin purchases by companies like MicroStrategy, thereby naturally restricting Bitcoin's upside. When these analyses were published, digital asset treasury companies were still considered untouchable, praised by service provider research teams, and amplified by media coverage—long before the market began to recognize the vulnerabilities we had identified. MicroStrategy now only purchases tens of millions of dollars at a time, rather than billions—this scale is too small to convince investors that new capital is driving Bitcoin's next rally. The second narrative limiting Bitcoin's upside is that the market realizes traditional wallets are selling billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin—essentially selling into ETF demand. Since June, our analysis shows that the selling volume from these traditional holders has only matched the absorption capacity of ETFs and new market entrants, which has prevented a market crash but created a new equilibrium. In this environment, Bitcoin's volatility is destined to decline—the optimal strategy is to sell volatility, as the price is likely to remain range-bound.