Will XRP Rally or Dump Between Halloween and Christmas 2025?

The final quarter of 2025 has arrived, and with it, renewed speculation over whether XRP can sustain its bullish momentum through the holiday season. 

Historically, the end of the year tends to bring optimism to the crypto market. However, with mixed market cues, XRP investors are questioning whether this season will echo past gains or trigger a new downturn.

XRP’s Historic Performance During Q4

Over the years, XRP has exhibited varying performance during Q4, with the average trend leaning positive. In Q4 2022, the altcoin suffered sharp losses as the FTX collapse sent shockwaves through the broader market. The incident erased billions in market capitalization, shaking investor confidence and causing XRP to close the year deeply in the red.

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The following year, Q4 2023, offered moderate recovery as regulatory sentiment began shifting. Still, it was Q4 2024 that marked one of the most memorable bull runs for XRP. The long-running Ripple-SEC lawsuit appeared close to resolution, boosting confidence across the industry. 

Furthermore, with Gary Gensler’s expected exit from the SEC under the incoming Trump administration, investors anticipated a friendlier crypto regulatory environment. This optimism helped fuel a 363% rally, propelling XRP to multiyear highs.

Heading into Q4 2025, XRP appears to be building a strong bullish foundation once again. On-chain data shows that accumulation is accelerating at one of the fastest rates in five years. Since the beginning of October, over 960 million XRP, worth roughly $2.3 billion, has been moved off exchanges. 

This reduction in available supply has brought exchange balances to their lowest level since 2020, reflecting investors’ long-term confidence in the asset. Such accumulation patterns often precede price rallies, as lower exchange supply tends to limit immediate selling pressure. If this trend continues into December, XRP could mirror its previous end-of-year performance.

XRP Price Has Recovery To Look Forward To

XRP is currently trading at $2.42, marking a 14% month-to-date decline after the recent market crash. Still, the altcoin is showing signs of recovery, attempting to reclaim lost momentum amid improving investor sentiment.

To confirm a rebound, XRP must breach $2.54 and hold above it. Doing so could propel the token toward $2.64, and if historical trends repeat, the crypto token could retest $3.00 or higher. This would help the altcoin fully recovering its recent losses.

However, if the market weakens further, XRP could slip below $2.27 and potentially fall toward $2.00, invalidating the bullish thesis. The coming weeks between Halloween and Christmas may prove decisive in defining XRP’s next major move.