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Fed Left in the Dark as Government Shutdown Postpones Key Inflation Reports

Fed Left in the Dark as Government Shutdown Postpones Key Inflation Reports

Bitget-RWA2025/10/24 13:32
By: Bitget-RWA
- U.S. government shutdown delays critical September CPI data release to October 24, disrupting Federal Reserve policy planning and market stability. - Cryptocurrency markets react sharply: Ethereum ETFs see $145M outflows while Bitcoin ETFs show faster recovery amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. - Delay threatens 2026 Social Security COLA calculations and global confidence, with Canadian dollar and Japanese yen both showing negative impacts from disrupted U.S. economic governance. - Analysts warn

The postponement of crucial inflation statistics due to the U.S. government shutdown has unsettled financial markets and complicated the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was initially set for release on October 15, has been rescheduled to October 24, leaving both investors and policymakers in a state of uncertainty, as noted in a

. This rescheduling, caused by interruptions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) during the shutdown, has intensified fluctuations in both cryptocurrency and stock markets. ETFs, for example, have seen $145 million withdrawn as traders react to the unclear macroeconomic environment, according to a .

The CPI, a central indicator of inflation, is critical for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for October 28-29. Projections suggest the September CPI will show a 3.1% annual increase—the highest since May 2024—according to a

. Such a result would indicate ongoing inflationary challenges, making it harder for the Fed to weigh interest rate cuts against its 2% inflation goal. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected next week, the lack of timely data may affect decisions in December, as highlighted in a .

Fed Left in the Dark as Government Shutdown Postpones Key Inflation Reports image 0

The shutdown has also interrupted the collection of October CPI figures, raising the possibility of missing data in future reports, as pointed out by MarketMinute. This has added to market anxiety, with Ethereum currently at $3,973—a 0.5% daily increase but a 9.5% decline over the month, based on Coinotag’s earlier reporting.

ETFs, while also experiencing withdrawals, have recovered more quickly, highlighting Bitcoin’s comparative resilience during market turbulence.

The ripple effects of the delayed data extend beyond Wall Street. The Social Security Administration relies on the September CPI to set the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), which is anticipated to be about 2.7%, according to CBS News. Advocacy organizations caution that if inflation surpasses this adjustment, retirees could feel increased financial strain. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage inflation hinges on reliable data, which remains uncertain due to the ongoing shutdown, MarketMinute analysts observed.

Globally, the delay has undermined confidence in U.S. economic leadership. The Canadian dollar slipped after President Donald Trump ended trade negotiations with Canada following a contentious advertisement using Reagan’s voice, further unsettling international markets, as reported in a

. The Japanese yen also dropped to its lowest point in two weeks amid speculation that the Bank of Japan will postpone monetary policy changes, a development mentioned in the Reuters report.

What’s next? The CPI data expected on October 24 may provide some short-term answers, but the real challenge will be how the Fed navigates a prolonged lack of economic data in the coming months. If the shutdown continues, the credibility of economic policy—and investor confidence—could deteriorate further. As one analyst remarked, “Without up-to-date data, the Fed is essentially operating in the dark, which could lead to greater mistakes in an already fragile economy,” a sentiment echoed in the MarketMinute commentary.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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