Bitcoin Options Expiry Spurs Cautious Sentiment as $6 Billion in Contracts Settle
The digital asset sector is at a crucial
juncture
as close to $6 billion worth of
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
options are due to expire on October 24. Investors are bracing for increased price swings, with open interest at all-time highs and strategic plays in motion, as highlighted by
a Yahoo Finance report
. Deribit, a leading derivatives platform, notes that $5.1 billion in Bitcoin options and $754 million in Ethereum options will expire at 8:00 UTC. The "max pain" points—where the greatest number of contracts become worthless—are $113,000 for Bitcoin and $3,950 for Ethereum. Put-to-call ratios of 0.90 for Bitcoin and 0.77 for Ethereum indicate a cautiously optimistic outlook for price gains, but short-term unpredictability remains as market participants weigh risks ahead of significant U.S. economic data releases, such as the September CPI and Federal Reserve policy updates.
This expiration comes as overall market volatility remains muted, with Bitcoin's implied volatility at 40 and Ethereum's at 60, signaling a lull compared to earlier wild price moves. According to Deribit analysts, traders are holding positions through expiry, with increased interest in calls above $120,000 and puts at $100,000. Short-term puts saw a surge in premiums earlier in the week as traders sought protection, while long-dated Ethereum calls stretching into 2026 suggest ongoing bullish expectations.
Looking past the options expiry, Bitcoin's price trends in 2025 are being shaped by spot ETF inflows and limited liquidity, with exchange reserves at their lowest in six years, as reported by
a Coinotag analysis
. Over 1,670 wallets now hold more than 1,000 BTC—a milestone last reached in 2021—and large holders often use OTC desks for discreet transactions. For instance, one "insider whale" wallet earned $12.63 million from 12 straight profitable trades before closing long positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and
Solana
, as outlined in
a Coinotag report
. Additionally, a so-called "Trump insider whale" recently ended a $200 million Bitcoin short, locking in $6.4 million in gains and pushing total perpetuals profits close to $100 million, according to
a Decrypt article
.
Wider macroeconomic developments add further complexity. The U.S. President Donald Trump's pardon of Binance's Changpeng Zhao led to a 5% jump in
BNB
prices, as reported in
a TradingView digest
, while a $506 million
XRP
transfer and the movement of $440 million from a dormant Satoshi-era Bitcoin wallet highlight the unpredictable impact of major players. Hyperliquid trader 0xc2a3, recognized for a flawless win record, recently increased their Ethereum holdings to 33,270 ETH ($131.24 million) with 5x leverage, reflecting confidence in a possible rally to $4,000, according to
a Coinotag post
.
Market participants are encouraged to keep an eye on on-chain data, ETF activity, and macroeconomic triggers. Deribit analysts warn that while volatility linked to expiry usually calms after 8:00 UTC, the combination of thin liquidity, large holder moves, and central bank actions is likely to keep Bitcoin trading within a narrow band until a clearer trend develops.
