Bitcoin Updates Today: Is It a Bull Run or an Economic Slowdown? Cryptocurrency Faces Major Macroeconomic Turning Point

The cryptocurrency sector is at a critical crossroads, with a strong upward trend challenging negative macroeconomic predictions and igniting discussions about whether the bull market can persist or if a downturn is imminent. Market experts and investors are divided, with some encouraged by significant institutional investments, while others remain wary due to warnings of a possible bear market driven by the broader business cycle.

Bitcoin (BTC) and various altcoins have climbed to unprecedented levels, largely propelled by widespread institutional participation, including spot ETFs and crypto treasury companies, such as

(NASDAQ: ABTC). This upward momentum has been further supported by favorable attitudes from U.S. regulators and politicians, with Corp’s stock moving in step with Bitcoin’s price. Despite this, well-known crypto analyst Willy has cautioned that the next bear market may not be triggered by typical crypto cycles, but rather by a wider economic slump, .

Woo’s perspective is based on the increasing connection between crypto markets and global liquidity as well as macroeconomic trends. Traditionally, Bitcoin’s price movements have been shaped by two main elements: the four-year halving cycle and the expansion of global M2 money supply. However, Woo believes the next bearish phase will be driven by a downturn in the business cycle, marked by falling GDP, higher unemployment, and weaker consumer demand,

. “Should we experience a business cycle recession similar to those in 2001 or 2008, it will reveal how performs,” he remarked, pointing out that the 2008 financial crisis led to a 56% plunge in the S&P 500—a scenario that could also impact crypto assets.

Adding another layer to the discussion is the shifting pattern of Bitcoin’s price cycles. Recent findings indicate that

may be moving away from its established four-year rhythm. The present bull market has already outlasted previous cycles, and the latest halving did not spark the dramatic surge seen in 2017 and 2020, according to an . Instead, factors related to liquidity—such as the strength of the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Federal Reserve balance sheet actions—seem to have a greater impact. For example, Bitcoin’s negative correlation with the DXY index and its relationship with global M2 growth highlight the growing importance of macroeconomic forces over programmed scarcity.

Despite the prevailing optimism, there are notable risks. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has suggested that quantitative tightening may soon end, a development that could extend the bull market if paired with renewed monetary easing. Nevertheless, trade barriers and geopolitical issues could hinder global economic growth through 2026, as reported by Cointelegraph. At the same time, the recent rally in Bitcoin-related stocks, such as

, demonstrates the increasing overlap between the crypto sector and traditional finance, though price swings remain a significant concern.

The direction the market takes next will likely depend on whether macroeconomic conditions improve or worsen. Should the U.S. dollar weaken and liquidity rise, Bitcoin’s upward momentum could persist. On the other hand, a recessionary business cycle could prompt a steep decline, putting to the test the positions established during the current rally, as Willy Woo has cautioned.