Signal calls ramp up: Bitcoin Q4 valuation pushed to $200,000

Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon, Jay Jo

Source: Tiger Research

Original Title: Bitcoin Valuation Raised to $200,000 in Q4 2025

This report is written by Tiger Research and, based on factors such as institutions continuously buying during volatility, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the confirmation of institutional dominance in the market after the October crash, proposes a Bitcoin target price of $200,000 for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Key Points

• Institutional investors continue to accumulate during volatility—Q3 ETF net inflows remained stable, MSTR increased its holdings by 388 bitcoins in a single month, demonstrating strong long-term investment conviction;

• Overheated but not extreme—The MVRV-Z index stands at 2.31, indicating a high valuation but not at extreme levels. The clearing out of leveraged funds has removed short-term traders, creating room for the next upward movement;

• The global liquidity environment continues to improve—Broad money supply (M2) has surpassed $96 trillion, reaching a historic high. Expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts are rising, with 1-2 more cuts expected within the year.

Institutional Investors Buying Amid US-China Trade Uncertainty

In the third quarter of 2025, the Bitcoin market slowed from the strong rally in the second quarter (up 28% quarter-on-quarter) and entered a volatile sideways phase (up 1% quarter-on-quarter).

On October 6, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $126,210, but the Trump administration once again imposed trade pressure on China, causing Bitcoin's price to pull back 18% to $104,000 and volatility to increase significantly. According to Volmex Finance's Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), as institutional investors steadily increased their holdings, Bitcoin volatility narrowed from March to September, but then surged by 41% after September, intensifying market uncertainty (Chart 1).

Driven by renewed US-China trade frictions and Trump's tough rhetoric, this pullback appears to be temporary. Institutional strategic accumulation, led by Strategy Inc. (MSTR), is actually accelerating. The macro environment is also providing a boost. The global broad money supply (M2) has surpassed $96 trillion, reaching a historic high, while the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17. The Fed has hinted at 1-2 more rate cuts this year, and a stable labor market combined with economic recovery has created favorable conditions for risk assets.

Institutional capital inflows remain strong. In Q3, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $7.8 billion. Although lower than Q2's $12.4 billion, the sustained net inflows throughout Q3 confirm the steady buying by institutional investors. This momentum has continued into Q4—just the first week of October saw $3.2 billion, setting a new weekly inflow record for 2025. This indicates that institutional investors view price pullbacks as strategic entry opportunities. Strategy continued to buy during the market pullback, purchasing 220 bitcoins on October 13 and 168 bitcoins on October 20, accumulating a total of 388 bitcoins in one week. This shows that regardless of short-term volatility, institutional investors firmly believe in Bitcoin's long-term value.

On-chain Data Signals Overheating, Fundamentals Remain Unchanged

On-chain analysis reveals some signs of overheating, but valuations are not yet concerning. The MVRV-Z indicator (the ratio of market value to realized value) is currently in the overheated zone at 2.31, but has stabilized compared to the extreme valuation range seen in July-August (Chart 2).

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) also shows an overheated area, but the high unrealized profit situation seen in Q2 has eased (Chart 3). The Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), which reflects investors' realized gains and losses, is very close to the equilibrium value of 1.03, indicating no cause for concern (Chart 4).

The number of Bitcoin transactions and active users remained at similar levels to the previous quarter, indicating that network growth momentum has temporarily slowed (Chart 5). Meanwhile, total transaction volume is on an upward trend. Fewer transactions but higher volume means larger amounts of funds are being transferred in fewer transactions, suggesting an increase in large-scale capital flows.

However, we cannot simply view the increase in transaction volume as a positive signal. Recently, there has been an increase in funds flowing into centralized exchanges, which usually indicates that holders are preparing to sell (Chart 6). In the absence of improvements in fundamental indicators such as transaction count and active users, the rise in transaction volume is more indicative of short-term capital flows and selling pressure in a high-volatility environment, rather than a genuine expansion in demand.

The October 11 Crash Proves the Market Has Shifted to Institutional Dominance

The October 11 crash on centralized exchanges (down 14%) proves that the Bitcoin market has shifted from retail dominance to institutional dominance.

The key point is that the market reaction was completely different from before. In a similar environment at the end of 2021, a retail-dominated market saw panic spread, followed by a crash. This time, the pullback was limited. After large-scale liquidations, institutional investors continued to buy, indicating that institutions are firmly defending the market's downside. In addition, institutions seem to view this as a healthy consolidation that helps eliminate excessive speculative demand.

In the short term, successive sell-offs will lower the average entry price for retail investors and increase psychological pressure, potentially exacerbating volatility due to weakened market sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue to enter during the sideways phase, this pullback could lay the foundation for the next rally.

Target Price Raised to $200,000

Using our TVM method for Q3 analysis, we arrive at a neutral benchmark price of $154,000, up 14% from Q2's $135,000. On this basis, we applied a -2% fundamental adjustment and a +35% macro adjustment, resulting in a target price of $200,000.

The -2% fundamental adjustment reflects the temporary slowdown in network activity and the increase in centralized exchange deposits, indicating short-term weakness. The macro adjustment remains at 35%. Global liquidity expansion and continued institutional capital inflows, along with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, provide a strong catalyst for Q4's rally.

Short-term pullbacks may stem from signs of overheating, but this is a healthy consolidation rather than a shift in trend or market perception. The continued rise in the benchmark price indicates that Bitcoin's intrinsic value is steadily increasing. Despite temporary weakness, the medium- to long-term outlook for further gains remains solid.