XLM Drops 0.47% to $0.3167 as Key Resistance Levels Face Increased Pressure

On October 29, 2025, Stellar Lumens (XLM) ended the day at $0.3167, reflecting a 0.47% decrease over the previous 24 hours. The cryptocurrency dropped 0.81% over the last week, with losses deepening to 12.94% over the past month. Since the beginning of the year,

Earlier this week, XLM experienced a short-lived surge, climbing from $0.3240 to $0.3314 within the 24 hours ending October 28. This 2.3% increase represented a move above the $0.3250 resistance, fueled by a trading volume of 71.5 million. Activity peaked during the European session, reaching 190.5 million, which may indicate involvement from institutional investors. Despite this volatility, XLM maintained a bullish trend, forming higher lows between $0.3219 and $0.3314. The price briefly dipped to $0.331 as 11.8 million in selling volume emerged, but soon steadied around the $0.3315 support, suggesting continued accumulation.

Looking at the bigger picture, institutional interest in Stellar’s capabilities for next-generation payment solutions has been rising. At the SWIFT SIBOS event, industry professionals highlighted the network’s ability to bridge blockchain-based instant settlements with traditional financial systems, strengthening XLM’s long-term prospects. However, the latest price movements indicate a more uncertain short-term scenario.

Technical Analysis

The $0.3315 level has proven to be a crucial support for XLM during the recent retracement. On the resistance side, the $0.335 zone stands out as a key area to watch. Testing this resistance could reveal whether buyers are prepared to drive the price higher. Volume data from the October 28 rally—especially the 190.5 million traded during the European session—points to significant institutional participation, hinting at a more organized accumulation phase.

Despite the recent dip, the chart still shows a clear upward trend with higher lows. However, if the price falls below $0.3240—the breakout threshold—it would signal fading bullish momentum and could lead to further declines toward $0.3219 or below.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest covering January 1, 2022, to October 29, 2025, analyzed XLM’s behavior after closing at or above $0.335. The study found 170 such occurrences. On average, returns after these signals were –0.49% on the first day, worsening to –9.7% by day 30. By the third day, underperformance compared to a crypto benchmark became statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, with the chance of positive returns never surpassing 45% and dropping to about 22% after 30 days.

This pattern indicates that the $0.335 mark has often served as a resistance, leading to short-term declines after being reached. Investors and traders should be cautious as XLM nears this level, since it may signal increased selling or profit-taking. The backtest findings are consistent with the current technical outlook, where XLM’s short-term direction remains under pressure.