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Bitcoin News Update: Temporary Setback, Future Growth: Bitcoin's Recent Pullback Could Pave the Way for a Strong Upward Recovery

Bitcoin News Update: Temporary Setback, Future Growth: Bitcoin's Recent Pullback Could Pave the Way for a Strong Upward Recovery

Bitget-RWA2025/10/30 18:40
By: Bitget-RWA
- Bitcoin faces potential 20% correction as Glassnode notes negative STH-NUPL, signaling short-term holder losses and historical bearish patterns. - Long-term holders remain resilient with SOPR at 2.3, contrasting market reset dynamics where short-term pain may enable stronger recoveries. - Michael Saylor predicts $150,000 BTC by 2025 amid easing U.S.-China tensions, while $108,000 support and Fed policy outcomes remain critical volatility triggers. - Heavy LTH distribution (104,000 BTC) and fragile STH-NU

Bitcoin could be headed for a 20% pullback as on-chain data points to mounting pressure among speculative traders, according to a recent

. The Short-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (STH-NUPL) indicator, which measures the gains or losses of coins held for under 155 days, has slipped into negative territory, signaling that recent buyers are increasingly underwater. This trend is reminiscent of April 2024, a time that preceded a notable upward move, as highlighted in a . Historically, a negative STH-NUPL often helps eliminate speculative froth, clearing the way for stronger rebounds by forcing out weak hands and reducing excessive leverage, as noted in an .

While short-term holders are experiencing losses, long-term holders (LTHs) continue to show strength. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks the profitability of coins that have been sold, is currently at 2.3, indicating ongoing confidence among LTHs. This divergence points to a market reset, where short-term pain could set the stage for future gains. Glassnode’s data reveals that previous STH-NUPL downturns have often preceded bullish reversals, with

gaining traction from the $108,000 demand area.

Bitcoin News Update: Temporary Setback, Future Growth: Bitcoin's Recent Pullback Could Pave the Way for a Strong Upward Recovery image 0

The ongoing correction has been intensified by significant selling from long-term holders, who have offloaded about 104,000 BTC this month—the largest amount since July. This wave of distribution, together with short-term holders selling at a loss, has limited Bitcoin’s recovery. Technical signals such as the Stochastic RSI indicate a rebound from oversold conditions, but a sustained move above $113,000—the average cost for short-term holders—is needed to confirm a bullish reversal.

Despite the turbulence, some experts remain hopeful. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy and a prominent Bitcoin investor, has projected that the price could reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, citing positive regulatory changes and growing institutional interest, according to a

. His outlook comes as trade relations between the U.S. and China improve, with officials from both countries suggesting a possible agreement that could boost global economic sentiment.

At present, Bitcoin is trading around $108,590, staying above the crucial $108,000 support, as reported by a

. A breakout above $110,000 could restore bullish momentum, while a drop below might see prices test the $88,000 Active Investors’ Realized Price—a level often linked to deeper corrections. The derivatives market has calmed since October’s liquidations, with implied volatility falling to 43% and options skew returning to normal, but the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy announcement remains a key variable: a dovish stance could maintain stability, while a hawkish move might trigger renewed volatility, according to .

Traders are watching on-chain trends closely. The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap shows Bitcoin struggling to reclaim major supply zones, with fresh selling from LTHs adding to resistance at higher prices. Meanwhile, capitulation among short-term holders—reflected by an STH-NUPL of –0.05—points to fragile investor confidence. Analysts stress that a shift from distribution to accumulation among LTHs is essential for a lasting recovery.

As Bitcoin works through this correction, the dynamic between short-term weakness and long-term strength shapes the outlook. While immediate hurdles remain, historical trends and technical signals suggest a possible turnaround—provided key support levels hold and broader economic conditions are favorable.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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