Bitcoin Updates: Will the Fed's Policy Shift Decide Bitcoin's November—Surge Ahead or Pullback?

Bitcoin’s November Price Outlook Shaped by Fed Decisions and Market Mood

The Federal Reserve’s rate announcement on October 29, 2025, is set to play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s (BTC USD) near-term direction. With a 96.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate reduction already factored in by the market, experts are divided on whether this will spark renewed bullishness or prompt a correction for the cryptocurrency, according to

. The Fed’s policy stance, along with technical signals and institutional investment trends, is creating two possible paths for Bitcoin’s performance in November.

At present, Bitcoin is consolidating in the $113,000–$115,000 band, navigating between significant technical markers and broader economic influences. Should the Fed adopt a hawkish tone or maintain rates for longer, prices could slide toward $104,000, with the $92,000 support level becoming vulnerable if risk aversion grows, the TradingView outlook indicated. On the other hand, a dovish shift in policy could drive

above $120,000, especially if institutional buying continues to boost ETF inflows. This month alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs have drawn in $3.5 billion in new investments, with institutions now holding 12% of the total supply—a record high, according to .

Technical experts are watching two main possibilities ahead of the FOMC meeting. The first scenario sees a modest rise before the meeting, followed by a sharp reversal that tests the $109,000–$110,000 support area. The second scenario involves a pullback to fill a CME Futures gap before the meeting, potentially setting up a new all-time high in November, the TradingView outlook noted. Blockchain data adds complexity: liquidity heatmaps reveal concentrated short-term sell orders between $111,000 and $117,000, which could trigger a short squeeze if prices surpass $117,000, according to

.

Broader economic conditions continue to favor Bitcoin. The anticipated Fed rate cut would lower policy rates to 3.75%–4%, a range historically linked to strong risk-on rallies that have pushed BTC to new peaks, the Investing.com report observed. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) below 99 and inflation easing to around 3% are making Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against currency debasement. Meanwhile, a shift of capital from gold to crypto has accelerated, with the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio returning to pre-tariff levels. Still, uncertainty persists. Post-FOMC volatility could increase due to differing opinions among Fed officials, as highlighted by

that referenced a recent hawkish dissent, suggesting possible disagreements over further rate cuts in December. Additionally, although U.S.–China trade tensions have temporarily eased, they remain an unpredictable factor that could impact risk appetite. More than 56% of traders expect the Fed to lower rates again to 3.5%–3.75% in December, but renewed trade frictions could dampen the effect of these cuts, the Cointelegraph article cautioned.

Forecasts for Bitcoin’s price remain highly varied. Some optimistic projections see $140,000 by year-end, citing historical data showing Bitcoin has averaged 46% gains in November over the past 12 years, according to

. Others point to a possible $500,000 target for 2026, though such long-term bullishness contrasts with more cautious short-term views, as summarized in . On the bearish side, a drop below $109,000 could expose liquidity gaps near $100,000, according to traders tracking key support levels cited by the Investing.com report.

Institutional participation continues to provide stability. ETF inflows and corporate involvement—such as MicroStrategy’s $150,000 price target—highlight Bitcoin’s increasing role in mainstream finance, according to

. However, retail investor sentiment, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index, is neutral at 42, indicating cautious buying rather than exuberant accumulation, per .

With Bitcoin hovering near $115,000 as of October 28, its next move will be shaped by the Fed’s communication and how markets respond. A decisive break above $117,500 could signal a lasting uptrend, while failing to hold $109,000 may lead to continued sideways trading. As one analyst put it, “November has historically been among Bitcoin’s strongest months. If macro conditions remain favorable, we could see a legitimate move to new highs before the year ends,” the Cointelegraph article concluded.