Mortgage Rates Remain Tied to Bond Market, Not Federal Reserve Decisions
At the start of November 2025, mortgage rates in the United States saw a slight decrease, with the average 30-year fixed rate dropping to around 6.4% as of October 31, according to
Analysts believe that unless the Fed changes its policy, mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively steady, moving gradually in response to bond market trends rather than experiencing sharp changes. "If the Fed skips a November meeting, I anticipate mortgage rates will follow the bond market—small daily fluctuations rather than significant shifts," said Steven Glick, HomeAbroad’s director of mortgage sales. He pointed out that Treasury yields, which are currently near their lowest levels in years, should help keep mortgage rates in the mid-6% range.
Jeremy Schachter, a mortgage branch manager, noted that the market has already accounted for two anticipated Fed rate cuts before the end of the year. "Current rates already reflect those expected decreases," he said, echoing broader market sentiment.
Still, recent statements from the Fed have added a layer of uncertainty. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in December "is not a certainty," which has dampened market optimism, according to
Historically, the relationship between Fed rate changes and mortgage rates has been inconsistent. For instance, when the Fed cut rates by 100 basis points at the end of 2024, mortgage rates actually increased by nearly a full percentage point, as highlighted in a
Looking forward, opinions in the market are mixed. BOK Financial forecasts that rates could fall to between 5.9% and 6.0% if inflation continues to ease, but a lack of action from the Fed or a reversal in inflation trends could send rates higher. For now, borrowers are encouraged to keep a close eye on the Fed’s December meeting. "Being ready is crucial," DerGurahian advised. "If rates drop further, securing a refinancing deal could lead to significant savings."
