Wintermute: The Four-Year Cycle Logic Is No Longer Valid, Liquidity Is the Real Driving Force in the Market

ChainCatcher news, Wintermute stated in its latest market report that despite the continued expansion of global liquidity, major central banks cutting interest rates and ending quantitative tightening, and the stock market remaining at high levels, incremental capital has not flowed into the crypto market. Instead, more funds have gone into stocks, AI, and prediction markets, with only stablecoin supply continuing to grow.

The report points out that the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current market landscape, and that the core driving force behind price trends today is macro liquidity. Wintermute believes that the current market structure remains robust, leverage risks have been fully cleared, and volatility is relatively controllable, but a true recovery of the crypto market still depends on the restart of capital inflows from ETFs and DAT (tokenized asset trading).