The unrealized loss ratio for Bitcoin has climbed to 8.5%, reflecting growing bearish sentiment as the crypto market endures a steep downturn. The value of
Bitcoin
(BTC) dropped under $87,000 on November 20, 2025, reaching its lowest point in seven months and resulting in more than $914 million in liquidations, with over $703 million coming from long positions. This has increased downward pressure on the cryptocurrency,
driving its cost basis beneath the significant 0.75 quantile
, a level often linked to bear market conditions in the past.
This wave of selling has occurred alongside unprecedented withdrawals from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs),
which saw $903 million exit in a single session
, marking the second-largest outflow since their debut in January 2024. BlackRock’s
iShares Bitcoin Trust
(IBIT) experienced the largest withdrawal, losing $355.5 million, while Grayscale’s
GBTC
recorded $199.35 million in redemptions. Experts point to institutional investors locking in profits and a shift to risk aversion as the year ends, but emphasize this does not indicate a fundamental drop in demand. "
The spot ETF channel remains functional
, and the outflows are likely due to short-term portfolio adjustments rather than a mass exit," Bitfinex analysts commented.
Despite the market upheaval, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has been increasing its stakes in crypto-related companies, investing an additional $39.6 million in Bullish, Circle Internet, and Bitmine as their share prices declined. This approach signals confidence in long-term growth, even as the market remains volatile in the near term. "
This presents an opportunity for long-term investors
to buy tokens at reduced prices," said Przemysław Kral, CEO of zondacrypto.
Broader economic factors have further fueled the bearish trend. On November 21, Japan’s government approved a $135.4 billion stimulus package to help offset inflation. However,
Bitcoin continued its decline, falling below $85,500
despite its reputation as a safeguard against monetary expansion. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s ambiguous position on interest rate cuts has heightened risk aversion,
with the probability of a December cut rising to 73.3%
according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Blockchain data highlights the extent of the downturn.
A prominent Ethereum whale sold off 18,517 ETH
using a leveraged loan, incurring a $25.29 million realized loss, while the remaining 1,560
WBTC
tokens are now sitting on an unrealized loss of $41.12 million.
Glassnode analysts pointed out
that for Bitcoin to reverse the bear trend, it must recover the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a threshold that has marked pivotal moments in previous cycles.
Some technical signals offer cautious optimism. Bitcoin is currently testing the lower edge of a symmetrical rising channel established since 2023, and Santiment observes that intense retail pessimism often comes before a turnaround.
The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index dropped to
a yearly low of 15 out of 100, a level that has historically preceded recoveries within a few months. Additionally, miners have shifted from selling to accumulating, adding a net 777
BTC
over the past week, suggesting a stabilization in supply.
As the market processes these developments, the outlook remains unclear. While short-term investors are selling in panic, "strong hands" seem to be absorbing the excess supply, a pattern observed in previous capitulation phases. With Bitcoin now 30% below its October high, the coming weeks will reveal whether bulls can reclaim crucial technical and on-chain levels, or if the bearish phase will deepen further.
