JPMorgan Chase & Co. has strengthened its projection that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December 2025, pointing to a more dovish policy approach and weakening economic data. The bank’s outlook is in step with increasing market confidence, with
the CME FedWatch Tool indicating a 79% chance
of a 25-basis-point cut as of November 26. If realized, this would mark the third rate decrease of the year, following moves in September and October, and
underscores the Fed’s efforts
to balance easing inflation with a cooling job market.
The shift toward looser monetary policy has already triggered a "risk-on" sentiment, with digital assets rallying as investors expect greater liquidity.
Bitcoin
(BTC) briefly climbed above $107,000 earlier this month, while
Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also posted notable advances
.
Experts link this surge
to the negative correlation between interest rates and speculative assets, as lower rates make holding non-yielding cryptocurrencies more attractive.
Juan Leon, a senior investment strategist at Bitwise
, described the possible nomination of Kevin Hassett—a Trump-affiliated economist known for supporting aggressive rate cuts—as "highly bullish" for the crypto sector.
Hassett, who currently leads the White House National Economic Council, is a top contender to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell,
according to Bloomberg and MUFG analysts
.
His dovish perspective and previous advisory experience
with
Coinbase
have made him a pro-crypto candidate who could shape digital asset regulation. However,
Trump’s efforts to exert more influence over the Fed
have sparked debate about the central bank’s autonomy, especially after his unsuccessful bid to oust Governor Lisa Cook earlier this year.
Markets have broadly responded to the prospect of rate cuts.
European equities climbed
as traders anticipated a Fed policy shift, while yields on U.S. Treasuries fell, leading to a steeper yield curve.
The U.S. dollar weakened
, reaching its lowest level in a week, and gold prices rose as investors sought protection against inflation and currency depreciation. In the crypto space,
Upexi, a Nasdaq-listed company
that holds more than 2 million SOL, secured $23 million in a private sale to strengthen its
Solana
reserves amid turbulent price movements.
JPMorgan’s report identifies which sectors could benefit or suffer from a rate reduction.
Traditional banks may see their profit margins squeezed
as net interest margins decline, while technology and fintech companies focused on growth could gain from easier access to capital.
The digital asset sector
, including trading platforms like Coinbase and mining firms such as Riot Platforms, is also positioned to profit as trading activity and asset prices increase.
On the other hand, stablecoin issuers and real-world asset
protocols might encounter profitability challenges in a low-yield setting.
Looking forward, the Fed’s meeting on December 9–10 will be pivotal. Although a 25-basis-point cut is widely anticipated,
unexpected moves—such as a larger 50-basis-point cut
or holding rates steady—could spark significant market swings.
Experts caution
that short-term pullbacks are still possible, with Bitcoin’s price exposed to unfilled CME gaps and ongoing selling by short-term investors. Nevertheless,
the long-term outlook remains positive
, as the Fed’s end to quantitative tightening and the possibility of a "soft landing" point to a broader move toward more accommodative policy.