Bitcoin: A Relative Buying Opportunity Despite the Panic, According to k33
Bitcoin is undergoing a brutal correction phase, with a 36% drop since October 2025. However, according to K33 Research, this drop creates a relative buying opportunity, with the selling approaching saturation. Here is why this period could be ideal for investors.
In brief
- Bitcoin has dropped 36% since October 2025, reaching a floor at $80,500, signaling seller capitulation.
- K33 Research sees the current bitcoin correction as a relative buying opportunity.
- Bitcoin forecasts for 2026 range between $90,000 and $200,000, supported by ETFs and growing adoption.
The impact of bitcoin’s brutal drop
Bitcoin is currently experiencing a dizzying fall, even reaching a floor of $82,000 to $80,500 on November 21, 2025 ! An unprecedented level since early 2024. This drop is accompanied by record transaction volumes, exceeding $14.3 billion in a single day, and massive outflows from ETPs, with a peak of 13,302 BTC in 24 hours. These indicators reflect seller capitulation, often a sign of the end of a bear cycle.
K33 Research notes that the open interest on perpetual contracts reached an annual high of 325,000 BTC before falling back to 300,000 BTC, signaling a reduction in long positions and a market cleanup. Furthermore, the correlation between bitcoin and equity markets has strengthened, but bitcoin experiences sharper declines. This is a sign of persistent selling pressure in a risk-reduction environment.
According to Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, this intense selling phase is nearing saturation . Panic signals, such as high volumes and massive outflows, suggest the market might soon find a floor, paving the way for bitcoin stabilization or gradual recovery.
Why is bitcoin a strong relative buy despite volatility?
Bitcoin’s recent drop has created a disconnect between its price and fundamentals. This underperformance, especially compared to the Nasdaq where bitcoin is now 30% weaker than in October, makes it a relative buying opportunity for long-term investors. Several structural factors support this thesis:
- Growing adoption of bitcoin by financial institutions, facilitated by regulations like the Clarity Act that reinforce its legitimacy as a safe haven asset;
- Upcoming political catalysts, such as integrating bitcoin into the portfolios of leading banks, which could widen access and stimulate demand;
- Finally, derivative data shows reduced leverage and declining open interest, which limits risks of cascading liquidations.
K33 Research believes this combination of factors makes bitcoin a strong relative buy, despite current volatility. Institutional investors and long-term holders could use this phase to accumulate BTC at attractive levels.
What price for BTC in 2026?
Forecasts for bitcoin in 2026 vary among analysts, but most agree on a medium-term uptrend. Some anticipate a price range between $88,403 and $98,000 for 2026, with potential growth of 11.45% if BTC reaches its high target.
Others, however, forecast a wider range between $150,000 and $230,000, due to institutional adoption. These optimistic forecasts rest on two pillars:
- The continuous influx of capital through ETFs;
- Growing adoption by institutions.
The recent bitcoin drop, though brutal, offers a relative buying opportunity according to K33 Research. With forecasts up to $200,000 in 2026, are the conditions for a future BTC bull run already in place?
