After rebounding from a crucial $2 support, XRP has caught the attention of traders and analysts who anticipate a possible surge toward $2.60, the midpoint of its ongoing downward channel. This recent recovery,
as noted by technical analyst Ali Martinez
, represents a significant turning point for XRP, which has been moving sideways within a Parallel Channel for more than a year. The lower edge of this channel has consistently provided solid support, and its latest defense could signal a continuation of the upward move. Should
XRP
maintain its current pace, the 20% climb needed to hit $2.60 is within reach, though factors like profit-taking from major holders could pose challenges
based on on-chain analysis
.
Institutional activity is also shaping the technical outlook. Bitwise and 21Shares have both introduced spot XRP ETFs, joining the expanding roster of firms giving investors access to the asset. These launches, along with Standard Chartered’s custodial services for 21Shares,
highlight growing institutional involvement
in XRP. Such developments could drive up demand, especially as regulatory frameworks in the U.S. continue to take shape. For instance, the SEC’s green light for Form 8-A filings for these ETFs has already attracted capital,
with total assets under management now topping $622 million
. Still, caution prevails, as XRP ETFs currently account for just 0.50% of the asset’s total market value, compared to 5.5% for
Ethereum
and 6.54% for
Bitcoin
.
Despite positive drivers, large-scale investor activity has brought volatility.
On-chain metrics indicate
that major holders offloaded nearly 200 million XRP within two days of the ETF launches, and this selling coincided with a breakdown in XRP’s technical setup,
with prices oscillating between $2.15 and $2.23 lately
. Experts caution that such heavy selling from whales could erode short-term gains, especially if institutional buyers do not intervene quickly. “The market is currently fragile,” one analyst observed,
pointing out that 41.5% of XRP’s circulating supply is at a loss
, indicating a concentration of holdings at higher prices.
Technical signals are sending mixed messages. XRP has managed to stay above its 100-period moving average and shows strength in its RSI, yet
it is still trading below important exponential moving averages
between $2.20 and $2.52, which continue to act as resistance. A decisive move above $2.60 would confirm the channel’s midpoint as a reversal point, but failing to hold this level could see a return to $2 support or even a drop toward $1.88. At the same time,
XRP’s recent performance against RLUSD
has seen increased transaction activity, hinting at ongoing utility.
Wider market conditions add further complexity. XRP’s value has dropped 16.95% over the last month,
even as regulatory progress and ETF investments have advanced
. This disconnect underscores the difficulty of reconciling institutional enthusiasm with retail investor sentiment. While short-term holders have been accumulating over the past week, long-term investors have stepped up their selling,
raising doubts about the confidence of committed holders
. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for long-term holders is now in a “belief–denial” range,
which has historically preceded market corrections
.
Looking forward, XRP’s direction will depend on whether institutional buying can counteract volatility caused by large holders. If the price can sustain a move above $2.24, it could pave the way for advances to $2.58 and $2.69,
provided whales do not resume heavy selling
. On the other hand, a drop below $2.06 could trigger renewed bearish momentum, potentially testing the $1.81 level. With the SEC’s approach to crypto ETFs still in flux and Ripple’s legal issues unresolved, XRP’s future will be shaped by both technical factors and broader market developments.
