The Puell Multiple, an important on-chain indicator that measures Bitcoin miners’ earnings compared to their yearly average, has recently dropped to 0.67. While this points to increasing strain on the network, it remains above the 0.50 mark that has historically marked the lowest points of previous cycles. Analysts are keeping a close eye on this metric, as it has consistently highlighted major market bottoms since 2015. Although the current value suggests Bitcoin may be undervalued relative to its annual trend, it has not yet reached the depths seen in past market troughs, prompting investors to remain cautious and observant.
Created by Glassnode, the Puell Multiple compares the daily issuance of new Bitcoin to miners with their average revenue over the past year, providing a window into market sentiment and miner capitulation. Values under 1 indicate that miners are earning less than their typical annual income, a scenario often associated with periods of market surrender.
This recent dip to 0.67 comes after Bitcoin’s price retreated to $80,500. Some experts note that similar readings have historically preceded strong recoveries. For example, when the Puell Multiple fell to 0.86 in April 2025, Bitcoin subsequently rallied by 50% to reach $112,000. Still, analysts caution that no single metric can predict price movements with certainty, and recommend considering a range of on-chain indicators alongside the Puell Multiple.
Additional data supports the possibility of a market rebound. The MVRV Z-Score, which compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized value, has sunk to its lowest point in two years—levels that have previously signaled the start of major rallies. At the same time, the NVT Golden Cross has turned negative, indicating that Bitcoin may be undervalued and presenting short-term opportunities for price correction, according to market analysts. These developments have boosted optimism among bullish investors, with some suggesting there is a 91% chance Bitcoin will avoid retesting its recent lows and could climb as high as $118,000.
Chart patterns and technical indicators also hint at a possible near-term bounce. A bullish flag formation on the four-hour chart points to a potential target of $96,800, provided Bitcoin can break through resistance at $87,200. The relative strength index has recovered from oversold territory, suggesting that upward momentum is building. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has echoed this positive outlook, citing improving global liquidity and the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle as factors that could lift the entire crypto market.
Despite these encouraging signals, some experts urge restraint. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that the recent rebound to $89,000 might be a temporary “dead cat bounce,” with the possibility of another decline below $80,000 still on the table. CryptoQuant has also noted that while the market has managed to absorb forced selling, ongoing stability will depend on favorable conditions in traditional financial markets. For now, investors are weighing historical trends against current data as they wait for clearer signs of a lasting recovery.