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Chainlink Faces Crucial $14 Challenge: Bulls Confront Bearish Whales and Declining Futures

Chainlink Faces Crucial $14 Challenge: Bulls Confront Bearish Whales and Declining Futures

Bitget-RWA2025/11/29 04:48
By: Bitget-RWA
- Chainlink's LINK token rose 11% to $13.02 amid Bitcoin's stability and Fed policy speculation, but analysts warn of fragile bullish momentum. - Whale selling (31.05M tokens) and 30% futures open interest decline signal structural risks, with $14 acting as a critical resistance level. - Technical analysis shows a falling-wedge pattern suggesting potential 23% rally to $17.86 if $14 is sustained, but bearish on-chain data clouds outlook. - Fed's potential December rate cut offers partial support, yet insti

Chainlink (LINK) Price Analysis: Key Resistance and Market Sentiment

On Monday, Chainlink’s native token, LINK, saw a modest uptick, trading at $13.02 as market participants assessed both technical signals and broader economic trends. Over the past three days, LINK rebounded 11% from a low of $11.74, a move supported by Bitcoin’s stability above $80,000 and evolving expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. Despite this recovery, experts warn that the upward momentum is tenuous. Large holders have been selling, and futures market open interest has declined, both of which could present obstacles to further gains. The $14 price point now stands as a crucial resistance; whether LINK can maintain strength above this level may determine if the rally continues or if a deeper pullback is ahead, as suggested by recent market assessments.

Technical Patterns and On-Chain Signals

Technical analysis presents a mixed picture for LINK. The token’s price movement has formed a falling-wedge pattern—a chart formation that, if broken to the upside, could indicate a potential 23% surge toward $17.86. However, this bullish scenario depends on sustained buying interest, which remains muted at present.

Chainlink Technical Chart

The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as a dynamic resistance, and traders are watching closely to see if LINK can break above this level to confirm a lasting recovery. Bearish on-chain data clouds the outlook: in the last three months, large investors have sold off 31.05 million LINK tokens—a pattern that has historically signaled market tops and sharp corrections.

Derivatives Market and Trader Sentiment

Further caution comes from the derivatives market. Since October 10, open interest in LINK futures has dropped by 30%, falling from $730.8 million to $510.3 million, according to Coinglass. This reduction suggests that traders are scaling back leveraged positions amid price uncertainty. With speculative activity waning, the market’s momentum now depends more on macroeconomic sentiment than on strong underlying demand. Analysts, including Ali Martinez, note that such a disconnect between spot and derivatives markets often precedes extended periods of price weakness.

Macroeconomic Influences

Broader economic factors are providing some support. Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials, such as New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, have fueled speculation that the central bank could take a more accommodative approach at its December 9–10 meeting. Signs of easing inflation and the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate cut have lifted riskier assets, including altcoins like LINK. Nevertheless, these positive signals may not be enough to counteract the challenges posed by ongoing large-scale selling and limited liquidity.

Critical Levels to Watch

The $14 mark is a key battleground. If buyers can hold this resistance, the falling-wedge pattern could play out, potentially driving LINK up by 23% to $17.86. Conversely, a failure to stay above $14 could trigger renewed selling pressure, with the 20-day EMA and other resistance zones posing further hurdles. Traders are also monitoring the lower boundary of the wedge pattern, which has historically served as a support level for price rebounds. For now, the market remains finely balanced, with the next move likely depending on whether institutional selling continues or subsides.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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