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🇨🇦 TODAY: The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 bps to 2.50%.

Deutsche Bank: Raises Next Year's Gold Price Forecast to $4000

The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Eastern Time on September 18, 2025. With a string of weak employment reports weighing on the U.S. economy, market participants are broadly anticipating a rate cut—anywhere between 25 to 50 basis points. The outcome is poised to send ripples across risk assets, and crypto traders are already on edge. Macro Backdrop: Weak Jobs, Strong Expectations Recent labor data has painted a clear picture of slowing momentum in the U.S. economy. Payroll growth has cooled, unemployment claims are trending higher, and wage growth has softened. For the Fed, this is enough to warrant easing, especially after maintaining elevated rates through much of 2024 to combat inflation. The question now is not if the Fed cuts, but by how much. A smaller 25 bps move may disappoint risk markets in the short term, while a 50 bps cut could ignite a stronger risk-on rally. Crypto Market Response Ahead of the Decision Traders aren’t waiting for the announcement to position. Bitcoin has already reclaimed the $116,000 level, while altcoins are showing broad strength, with many smaller caps outpacing BTC and ETH on a percentage basis. This kind of pre-event rally suggests that the market is leaning toward a dovish outcome. Positioning Strategies Here’s how traders might think about the setup: Bitcoin as the Anchor BTC remains the safest high-beta proxy for the macro trade. A dovish cut could see momentum carry it toward $120,000, while a hawkish surprise could drag it back below $110,000. Position sizing is critical given the binary event. Altcoins for Leverage With capital already rotating into alts, a 50 bps cut could extend the rally in mid- and small-caps. Projects tied to real-world assets (RWA), AI, and L2 scaling solutions have been outperforming—these may see outsized gains if liquidity expectations increase. Hedging With Options Volatility is expected. Traders running directional bets may want to hedge with BTC or ETH options—buying puts for downside protection or calls to capture a potential breakout. Straddles could work if the move exceeds implied volatility pricing. The Risk of Overcrowding With so much consensus on a rate cut, the risk lies in the Fed undershooting expectations. A 25 bps move paired with cautious guidance could trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reversal across crypto. Final Thoughts The Fed’s September decision won’t just impact equities, bonds, and currencies—it’s set to be a defining moment for crypto as well. If the central bank leans dovish and hints at a cycle of easing into 2026, risk assets could enter a new phase of expansion. But traders should remember: the bigger the consensus trade, the sharper the potential unwind. For now, crypto is moving ahead of the Fed, but the real volatility starts once Powell takes the stage. $BTC $ETH

📊 A reasonable forecast for $ETH from Citigroup. - Network activity remains the main driver of ETH's valuation, but growth is primarily driven by L2 activity, where the value of Ethereum's base layer is questionable. - The bank believes that only 30% of L2 activity is reflected in the ETH price. - Tokenization, stablecoins, and ETF inflows could support Ethereum. - ETF inflows are smaller than BTC's, but more effective per dollar. However, they are limited due to ETH's lower market capitalization and recognition. Bullish scenario: $6,400 by year-end. Base scenario: $4,300 by year-end. Bearish scenario: $2,200 by year-end. We will most likely see the asset break above $5,000 and attempt to reach $6,000.