Market Outlook by Greeks.live (1/29-2/4)
This week is a macro week, with the release of many macroeconomic data centered around the decision on US Federal Reserve interest rates. However, overall expectations are consistent and the correlation between macro data and cryptocurrency market conditions has weakened. Currently, the main term IV is low and volatility expectations are not significant. The impact of BTC spot ETF has ended, and the selling pressure from Grayscale has also significantly diminished. Investors are now looking for the next hot spot.
1/31 Wednesday:
US January ADP employment figures
Bank of Japan releases summary of deliberations by Monetary Policy Meeting Committee members for March
2/1 Thursday:
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Bank of England interest rate decision
US initial jobless claims for the week
2/2 Friday:
US January unemployment rate
US January non-farm payroll employment figures
Final value of University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for January
The volatility brought by BTC spot ETF to the market has subsided, with implied volatility (IV) in major terms at extremely low levels. Currently, IV across all terms is below 50%, making it a high-value proposition to buy now. The current market is in a rebound after panic selling, and there is a high probability that buying on dips will result in short-term gains.
In terms of cryptocurrency lending markets, as the market calms down, leverage levels have quietly started to rise again. The lending market has bounced back from its low point and recently some high-interest orders have appeared. Friends with idle funds should seize this opportunity to re-enter the lending market.
