– Volatility hit the market even before the weekend with BTC dipping to 65,565 and ETH to 3,566 so far. – Overnight BTC spot ETF inflows came in weak at $132.7m nett which is a very steep drop in demand. – The negative risk reversals reported this morning has deepened and extended all the way out to May; the market is particularly nervous about BTC below 65k and ETH below 3k level. – We’ve also seen some sizeable unwinding of calls by institutional players who were the ones buying calls aggressively on the way up. – The whole BTC forward curve has also dropped by around 3-4% since this morning. This is possibly one of last chances to lock in some basis yield before the curve normalises to its usual 8-10% level? (Still around 18-25%)
Downside Hedge Idea: BTC or ETH Put Spreads
Example: 29Mar2024 60/50k Put Spread Cost is $1190 per BTC (spot ref: 67k) The structure starts to pay out if BTC expires below 60k level and reaches max payout of $10k per BTC if price is 50k or lower at expiry.
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