Prediction
markets on Polymarket currently estimate the likelihood of approval for a spot ether ETF by the end of May to be 28%. This marks a significant decrease from the odds of 74% on Polymarket on January 10, when spot bitcoin ETFs were approved.
Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in January, attention has turned to whether the agency could authorize spot ether ETFs next. So far, asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity, have filed applications.
The odds of a spot ether ETF being approved by May have dropped further to 23%. Image: Polymarket.
SEC delays spot ether ETF decision
However, earlier this month, the SEC delayed a decision on ether ETF applications from BlackRock and Fidelity, signaling that the possibility of such a financial product is farther away than initially thought.
"SEC Chair Gary Gensler's narrow mandate for spot bitcoin ETFs leaves the agency more room to reject future non-bitcoin ETF applications. We view this as likely, and are of the opinion that he does not want his legacy to be that of the SEC Chair who did most to validate the crypto asset class by approving multiple ETFs," Ryze Labs analysts said in an email sent to The Block.
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The chances of a spot ether ETF approval faced more obstacles this week. In a letter dated March 11, two Democratic U.S. senators urged SEC Chair Gensler not to proceed with approving future crypto products after the regulator's approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in January.
The letter was made public on X.com on March 14. Sens. Laphonza Butler of California and Jack Reed of Rhode Island stated that the SEC should restrict future crypto ETF applications, emphasizing that other cryptocurrencies lack "the trading volumes or integrity to support associated ETPs."
Bloomberg analysts lower odds of spot ether ETF approval
Earlier this week, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas lowered his expectations of a spot ether ETF getting approved to 30%, down from 70% in January. "We are [at] 30% odds,” Balchunas told The Block.
In January, Balchunas said there was a 70% chance of approval by May, while his colleague James Seyffart had given a 60-65% estimate . "This Ethereum ETH -3.53% ETF cycle feels like the opposite of bitcoin ETF approval odds at the moment. The more we see/hear (and don't see/hear) the less optimistic I become," said Seyffart on X . "We're ~73 days from the deadline and there really seems to be little to no movement."
