Cardano (ADA) is at a pivotal point as its value attempts to rebound from a 20% drop over the past month, currently hovering around $0.64 amid conflicting technical and on-chain signals. Experts remain divided on whether ADA can maintain upward momentum or if additional declines are likely. The coin’s immediate direction will depend on its ability to maintain essential support levels and leverage positive momentum signals.
From a technical standpoint,
Cardano
could experience a sharp turnaround if buyers manage to protect the $0.63–$0.64 support area. Should ADA break above this range and hold, it could potentially rally by 333% to reach $2.96, fueled by a structured wave pattern that has been forming since mid-2023, according to
a Coinotag analysis
. This outlook is supported by improving liquidity indicators, such as a three-month high in Chaikin Money Flow and a fully diluted valuation of $29.97 billion, as noted in the Coinotag analysis. Still, the recovery path is uncertain. If ADA falls below $0.62—a crucial level highlighted by analyst Ali Martinez—it could trigger a drop toward $0.55 or even $0.50, as
a CoinCodex analysis
points out.
On-chain metrics paint a different picture. Large investors have been increasing their holdings, accumulating approximately 200 million
ADA
tokens despite the downward price trend, according to
a Bitcoinist report
. This steady accumulation is reflected in a stable market cap ($22–$25 billion) and consistent growth in circulating supply, suggesting a long-term investment approach rather than panic selling, as noted by CoinCodex. Meanwhile, the derivatives market shows open interest above $600 million, indicating ongoing speculative activity during price consolidation, the Bitcoinist report adds.
Short-term indicators provide additional insight. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Chaikin Money Flow point to strengthening buying interest, with ADA holding above key support as of October 19, according to
a U.Today analysis
. A daily close above $0.67–$0.68 could confirm renewed bullish momentum, potentially challenging resistance at $0.74–$0.77 and sparking a move toward $1.30–$1.86, according to CoinCodex. On the other hand, failing to reclaim the 20-day moving average ($0.735) would likely prolong the current downtrend, warns the Bitcoinist report.
Wider market dynamics add further uncertainty. Although Cardano’s ecosystem is advancing with upgrades like Hydra scaling and Midnight privacy features, the Bitcoinist report notes that the broader crypto market has lost steam, with ADA joining
Bitcoin
and
Ethereum
in a bearish phase, according to
a CryptoDaily article
. ProShares’ recent SEC submission for a diversified crypto ETF that includes ADA signals growing institutional interest, but this development has yet to influence retail trading, the CryptoDaily article notes.
Experts emphasize that ADA’s recovery will depend on fundamental factors. “The $0.62 mark is crucial,” said Javon Marks, explaining that holding this level could confirm a symmetrical triangle breakout pattern that has been forming since early 2024, as reported by Coinotag. Conversely, a breakdown would likely lead to a retest of previous demand zones, potentially postponing a full recovery until early 2026, according to CoinCodex.
