Bitget App
Trade smarter
Open
HomepageSign up
Bitget>
News>
Markets>
Fed Faces Rate Decision: Is a Cut Possible Without Key CPI Insights?

Fed Faces Rate Decision: Is a Cut Possible Without Key CPI Insights?

Bitget-RWA2025/10/25 09:22
By: Bitget-RWA
- U.S. Federal Reserve faces delayed September CPI release due to 22-day government shutdown, complicating inflation assessment ahead of October FOMC meeting. - ADP employment data gap forces reliance on alternative metrics, with Fed Chair Powell acknowledging limitations in private-sector data substitutes. - Markets price 98.9% chance of 25-basis-point rate cut, but hotter-than-expected CPI could delay action, triggering market volatility and global dollar impacts. - Mixed market reactions include a stron

The U.S. Federal Reserve is at a pivotal moment as financial markets await the postponed September Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, now scheduled for release on October 24, 2025. This delay, caused by a 22-day government shutdown, has left Fed officials without crucial private-sector employment data from ADP, as reported by the Wall Street Journal

, making it harder for them to evaluate inflation trends before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 28-29. With inflation persisting above the Fed’s 2% goal and mixed signals from the job market, investors are closely monitoring for any indication of whether the central bank will move forward with a rate reduction.

The CPI delay has become a central issue for investors, who, according to CBS News, are already factoring in a 98.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC gathering

. Projections suggest the headline CPI will climb 3.1% year-over-year, just under August’s 3.1% estimate but still above the Fed’s target, as noted by Yahoo Finance . This pattern points to inflation stabilizing after a period of volatility, with some economists attributing the moderation in price increases to President Donald Trump’s tariff measures, according to Newsmax . Still, the Fed’s policy choices are further complicated by the shutdown, which has disrupted normal data collection and forced reliance on alternative indicators, as highlighted by the Wall Street Journal.

The shutdown has heightened uncertainty, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been unable to publish key employment figures, the Wall Street Journal noted. ADP’s move to stop sharing data with the Fed—a practice that had been in place for years—has made it even more difficult for policymakers to assess private-sector hiring, the Journal reported. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has admitted these challenges, stating that while private data can serve as “fairly good substitutes,” they cannot fully replace official government reports. Without comprehensive data, analysts told Newsmax, the Fed risks making decisions with limited visibility as it tries to balance inflation management with labor market health.

Market responses to the prevailing uncertainty have been varied. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed past 98.60, signaling renewed faith in the dollar amid easing trade frictions and expectations of Fed rate cuts, according to StreetInsider

. Meanwhile, Treasury yields have moved downward, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.949% as investors anticipate monetary easing, Reuters reported ( ,2025:newsml_L1N3W30QK:0-us-yields-dip-in-line-with-broad-trend-after-20-year-bond-auction/). In contrast, cryptocurrencies have outperformed, with the total crypto market capitalization increasing by 1.4% to $3.74 trillion as traders position for Fed easing, according to TradingView .

The outcome of the CPI release is expected to have significant consequences. If inflation comes in higher than anticipated, the Fed may delay cutting rates, which could trigger volatility in both stock and bond markets. On the other hand, a softer inflation reading could strengthen the case for a rate cut, boosting risk assets and easing upward pressure on the dollar. Companies are already preparing for different outcomes: financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) could benefit from prolonged higher rates, while global firms such as Apple (AAPL) may face challenges from a stronger dollar, as noted by StreetInsider.

With the October 24 CPI report approaching, the Fed’s challenge of balancing inflation and employment remains at the forefront. As signs point to a cooling labor market and inflation edging up, policymakers must carefully consider the trade-offs between tightening policy and holding steady. The decision will influence not only U.S. monetary policy but also global financial markets, where a stronger dollar could put pressure on emerging economies and increase debt servicing costs, StreetInsider warned. For now, market participants are focused on Friday’s data, seeking direction in an environment marked by ongoing uncertainty.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

Africa’s Crypto Landscape: Navigating Innovation and Regulatory Hurdles

- Kyrgyzstan integrates BNB into its crypto reserve and launches a government-backed stablecoin on BNB Chain, advised by Binance's CZ, aiming to become a "sustainable crypto hub" via green mining and blockchain education partnerships. - Nigeria's crypto policy faces delays due to legal challenges in Nnamdi Kanu's terrorism trial, highlighting governance issues complicating regulatory frameworks in Africa's fragmented crypto landscape. - Global crypto markets show volatility: Bitcoin ETFs gain $90.6M inflow

Bitget-RWA2025/10/26 06:34
Bitcoin News Update: In 2025, Broader Economic Trends, Not Large Investors, Are Shaping Bitcoin's Price Movements

- A Bitcoin whale recently accumulated $356.6M in BTC, but experts emphasize macroeconomic factors now dominate 2025 price trends over whale activity. - Spot ETF inflows and liquidity conditions increasingly drive intraday swings, with weekly flows correlating to new price highs since 2024. - Exchange liquidity has tightened to a six-year low (2.83M BTC), amplifying volatility as routine trades impact order books more significantly. - 97% of Bitcoin's supply in profit and shifting leverage highlight positi

Bitget-RWA2025/10/26 06:34
Hyperliquid News Today: "HYPE Jumps 12% While Altcoins Tumble Amid Bitcoin-Led Market"

- Bitcoin's market dominance hit 59% as altcoins like FET and BONK lost over 50% in three months amid liquidity crises and cascading liquidations. - Hyperliquid's HYPE token surged 12% to $38.92, with $690M trading volume and $1.55B open interest signaling renewed bullish momentum. - Hyperliquid seeks $1B via SEC filing to strengthen infrastructure, following HIP-3 upgrade and gamma exposure buildup between $112k-$120k BTC levels. - Persistent bearish sentiment (put options > calls) contrasts with HYPE's o

Bitget-RWA2025/10/26 06:34
AAVE up 3.51% over the past week following Aave Labs’ acquisition of Stable Finance to broaden its retail DeFi services

- Aave Labs acquires Stable Finance to expand retail DeFi offerings, enhancing consumer-friendly yield solutions. - Aave (AAVE) rose 3.51% in 7 days despite 17.48% monthly decline, reflecting mixed investor sentiment. - The $37B TVL platform navigates regulatory ambiguity as U.S. lawmakers restrict yield-bearing stablecoins. - Strategic moves like Maple Finance integration and Horizon RWA launch aim to strengthen DeFi market dominance.

Bitget-RWA2025/10/26 06:14

Trending news

More
1
Africa’s Crypto Landscape: Navigating Innovation and Regulatory Hurdles
2
Bitcoin News Update: In 2025, Broader Economic Trends, Not Large Investors, Are Shaping Bitcoin's Price Movements

Crypto prices

More
Bitcoin
Bitcoin
BTC
$111,639.66
+0.26%
Ethereum
Ethereum
ETH
$3,945.46
+0.32%
Tether USDt
Tether USDt
USDT
$1.0000
-0.05%
XRP
XRP
XRP
$2.62
+2.66%
BNB
BNB
BNB
$1,121.48
+0.32%
Solana
Solana
SOL
$194.01
-0.30%
USDC
USDC
USDC
$0.9998
-0.04%
Dogecoin
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.1962
-1.34%
TRON
TRON
TRX
$0.2956
-0.02%
Cardano
Cardano
ADA
$0.6538
+0.13%
How to buy BTC
Bitget lists BTC – Buy or sell BTC quickly on Bitget!
Trade now
Become a trader now?A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users!
Sign up now
Trade smarter