Arthur Hayes: The crypto bull market is reviving, macroeconomic trends are clear, and the G7 meeting in a week's time is worth paying attention to

PANews June 7 news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in the latest blog post discussed the current status and prospects of the USD/JPY exchange rate as an important macroeconomic indicator, and the impact of monetary policy trends of major central banks around the world (especially the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada and Bank of England) on the exchange rate. The author proposed a solution in a previous article, that is, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will exchange new US dollars for yen without a limit to strengthen the yen. However, the latest article wrote that he observed that the G7 central banks seemed to have chosen another strategy, that is, to reduce the central bank interest rate of the "high" policy rate to narrow the interest rate difference between the yen and other major currencies, thereby indirectly strengthening the yen. The article also analyzed the current inflation situation and the central bank's inflation target, pointing out that although the inflation rate is generally higher than the target, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank still chose to cut interest rates, which may be related to the weakness of the yen. Hayes predicted that the G7 central banks may announce some form of coordinated currency or bond market manipulation to strengthen the yen, or at least agree that other central banks, except the Bank of Japan, will start to cut interest rates. Hayes wrote: "The G7 will meet in a week, and the communique released after the meeting will attract great attention from the market. Will they announce some kind of coordinated currency or bond market manipulation to strengthen the yen? Or will they remain silent but agree that all countries except the Bank of Japan should start cutting interest rates? Stay tuned."

In addition, the article also discussed whether the Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates so close to the US presidential election, and believed that this would be political suicide, so the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the status quo. At the same time, the Bank of England may decide to lower interest rates due to the prospects of the Conservative Party in the next election. Hayes also pointed out: "This week, the interest rate cut decisions of the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank triggered a 'big move' (or 'wonderful show', using 'fireworks' as a metaphor here) of central bank policy in June, which is expected to get the cryptocurrency market out of the dull state of the northern hemisphere summer. This is not what I expected. I thought such a 'big move' would only start in August when the Federal Reserve held the Jackson Hole Symposium."

As for the impact on the crypto market, Hayes said: "The trend has become very clear, and some marginal central banks have begun to implement loose policies, which is a signal of a new round of monetary cycle. Since Satoshi Nakamoto provided us with Bitcoin in 2009, this confrontation We have been in this game since the tools of the traditional financial system were introduced, and the strategy was to hold Bitcoin and various altcoins for the long term. Now, the macro environment has changed, and my investment strategy will adjust accordingly. For those who ask whether the "Maelstrom" portfolio project should launch a token now or in the future, I suggest that they act now. In the meantime, my excess cryptocurrency synthetic USDe is earning a high annualized rate of return, but now is the time to redeploy these funds into altcoins. The bull market in the cryptocurrency market is recovering, which may put pressure or trouble on central bank governors who are overly loose in monetary policy. "