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Analysis: Trump meme sparks market, market confidence recovers

Analysis: Trump meme sparks market, market confidence recovers

Bitget2025/01/19 19:03
BTC-0.04%

Adam, a macro analyst at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform to share a preview of this week's major events (1/20-1/26). Trump will be sworn in as the new President of the United States on Monday. In recent days, Trump Trade has demonstrated the power of the U.S. president to the world, with an influence that is incomparable to others. The market uncertainty is strong and waiting for various promises made by Trump upon taking office. All major speculative markets are awaiting a huge wave of impact.

The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and related reports announced this Friday are worth paying attention to. Japan's interest rate hike has always been a Damocles' sword hanging over speculative markets; it will be the first important macro data after Trump takes office and will determine short-term results for Trump Trade.

New EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures; exchanges like Deribit need to improve their KYC before they can operate normally.

This week's major events:

1/20 Monday

Trump inaugurated as new US President

Martin Luther King Jr Day

Davos World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 

1/23 Thursday 

US initial jobless claims for current week (21:30)

1/24 Wednesday 

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for January (23:00)

Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision and economic outlook report

Cryptocurrency Market Outlook: Bitcoin holds steady at $100k but no one is paying attention right now because "Trump meme" has exploded in popularity, drawing all short-term attention towards him which quickly restores market confidence.
In terms of options, short-term IVs have risen significantly with ATM IV already rising up to 75%. This week expects larger volatility due to many uncertain factors causing institutions widen spreads. Recently there have been more large-scale bullish option transactions mostly supplementing institutional sell positions. From an event-driven perspective, the current options market meets our expectations at the beginning of the month.

In terms of cryptocurrency interest rate markets, they have been relatively stable recently. Suitable interest rate orders can be actively traded, especially during market trends which deserve special attention.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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