Data: 51% probability that the U.S. will establish a national reserve of Bitcoin by 2025, as predicted on Polymarket.

Polymarket's prediction that the U.S. will create a national reserve of Bitcoin in 2025 is 51%, down 14% from its previous high of 65%. The cumulative bets on this prediction currently stand at $581,400 as of December 31, 2025, and are based on the U.S. government's ability to make a significant contribution to its national reserve.

The criteria will be that the U.S. government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves, excluding Bitcoin confiscated by the U.S. government, and the primary source will be official information from the U.S. government or the Federal Reserve, as well as credible reports with consensus approval.