The Polymarket bet “Ripple ETF approved in 2025” has surged to 78% probability, reflecting strong market confidence in XRP securing SEC approval for a spot ETF next year.
As per the Polymarket bet data, the bet has a trading volume of $41,610, showing significant interest despite analysts’ skepticism. The “Yes” option is now trading at 79.8 cents, and the “No” choice costs 24 cents.
In a recent argument, cryptocurrency experts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart stated that Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Solana (SOL) had a better chance of receiving SEC approval for a spot ETF in 2025 than XRP.
According to their predictions, a spot Litecoin ETF has a 90% chance of approval, while Dogecoin stands at 75% and Solana at 70%. They believe XRP’s approval odds are no higher than 65%.
A Polymarket bet on Litecoin ETF approval in 2025 shows an 84% probability, but the trading volume is $20,537, which is lower than analysts’ prediction.
Meanwhile, a Solana ETF bet has an 82% probability with a much higher $78,694 volume, indicating strong investor belief in its approval. Interestingly, there are no active bets for a Dogecoin ETF, suggesting low market interest in its chances of SEC approval.
Since Bitcoin and Ethereum secured SEC approval for spot ETFs in 2024, some believe XRP could follow. At least seven major firms, including 21Shares, Grayscale, and Bitwise, have shown interest in launching an XRP ETF, adding to the momentum.
Polymarket betting does not mean that the SEC has to approve the ETF, but it shows that a lot of users are so optimistic, that they are willing to place thier money on it. During the US elections, billionaire Elon Musk had highlighted how Polymarket data can be more useful than traditional surveys.
