Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $111,970 has sparked optimism among crypto market participants, but whether that carries through into the third quarter of this year remains uncertain, analysts say.
“The coming weeks will likely determine whether Bitcoinʼs latest breakout was a local high or the prelude to a more aggressive leg higher in Q3,” Bitfinex analysts said in a May 28 markets note.
Consolidation or mild retracement may “be healthy”
Bitcoin ( BTC ) reached new all-time highs of $111,970 on May 22 ; however, Bitfinex analysts say a continued price increase alone won’t necessarily confirm the uptrend heading into the next quarter.
“A period of consolidation or mild retracement would not only be healthy but also provide a more sustainable foundation for the next leg higher,” the analysts said.
It isn’t unusual for Bitcoin to consolidate for an extended time after reaching all-time highs. After Bitcoin reached a high of $73,679 in March 2024, it swung within about a $20,000 range until Donald Trump was elected US president that November.
The third quarter of the year has, on average, been Bitcoin’s worst-performing quarter since 2013, with an average return of just 6.03% over the past 11 years, according to CoinGlass data. The next worst quarter on average is Q2, which has historically posted a stronger average return of 27.25%.
Q4 has been the best-performing quarter on average for Bitcoin since 2013. Source: CoinGlass
The analysts said that Bitcoin had entered a “short-term range-bound phase,” with a significant amount of short-term holders — those holding Bitcoin for under 155 days — selling off their positions over the past 30 days.
“With over $11.4 billion in short-term holder profits realized in the past month, the near-term supply overhang is expected — but so is structural demand. According to Bitbo data, the short-term holder realized price for Bitcoin was $95,781, while Bitcoin was trading at $108,929 at the time of publication.
This represents an average profit of 13.72% for short-term holders.
Bitfinex’s analysts said that Bitcoin’s ETF “bid strength,” low volatility and Bitcoin’s spot premium all signal a maturing market “poised for eventual continuation once macro clarity improves.”
The trading week ending May 23 saw around $2.75 billion flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US saw approximately $2.75 billion in inflows between May 19 and May 23. Source: Farside
Crypto investors will be watching the US Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision on June 18 for more clarity on the macro environment. The Fed kept rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% in May.
Bitcoin reaching new highs earlier this month was an event several crypto pundits predicted would happen earlier this year. On March 7, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten said there was a 50% chance Bitcoin would reach new highs before June .
Similarly, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said Bitcoin may hit “new all-time highs before Q2 is out.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
