Can Bitcoin Really Hit $113K or is it a Fleeting Dream?

Key Points

• Long-term Bitcoin holders are dominating while new investor inflows remain weak.
• Bitcoin’s rally seems to be maturing, with a rise in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and a fall in Stock-to-Flow Ratio.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] rally seems to be maturing, according to UTXO Age Band data.

Coins held for 6-12 months are currently dominating, while long-term holders, particularly those holding for over a year, are exiting.

Shift in Bitcoin Holder Demographics

At the same time, the share of new investors, those holding coins for less than a month, has dropped below 20%.

This is a significant decrease from the 50%+ typically seen at the peak of a cycle.

Consequently, it appears that BTC’s recent high is driven more by internal cycling among existing holders rather than an influx of fresh capital.

When older coins move, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric rises, as has been the case recently with a 2.09% climb to 26.1 million.

This suggests that older coins are being transacted, often a precursor to market shifts.

Bitcoin’s Scarcity Appeal in Question

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has dropped by 20%, indicating a weakening in its scarcity premium.

The S2F model, which has historically supported long-term bullish narratives, now reflects diminished conviction.

When scarcity weakens amid low new demand, it becomes more challenging to sustain price appreciation.

However, exchange reserves have dropped by 1.83% to $258.53 billion, suggesting fewer coins are available for immediate sale.

While this often indicates reduced sell-side pressure, it can also imply shrinking liquidity.

With fewer coins on exchanges, volatility may increase if demand abruptly changes.

The BTC/USDT Liquidation Map showed a significant short squeeze zone between $107K and $113K.

If BTC clears the $107K level, the ensuing short squeeze could trigger a sharp upward spike.

However, leverage on long positions appears modest, suggesting that bulls remain cautious.

BTC’s recent surge seems to be driven more by internal cycling among existing holders than by an increase in demand.

The rise in CDD, drop in S2F, and weakening new investor inflow all point to an aging rally.

While short liquidation clusters provide near-term upside potential, long-term sustainability depends on renewed interest from fresh capital.